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Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble

Journal Article · · Climate Dynamics
 [1];  [2];  [2]
  1. George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States); DOE/OSTI
  2. George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States). Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
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The representation of the seasonal mean and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models that participated in the North American Multimodal Ensemble (NMME) phase 1 (NMME:1), and in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models participating in the NMME phase 2 (NMME:2) from 1982–2009, is evaluated over the Indo-Pacific domain with May initial conditions. The multi-model ensemble (MME) represents the Indian monsoon rainfall with modest skill and systematic biases. There is no significant improvement in the seasonal forecast skill or interannual variability of ISMR in NMME:2 as compared to NMME:1. The NMME skillfully predicts seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) and some of the teleconnections with seasonal mean rainfall. However, the SST-rainfall teleconnections are stronger in the NMME than observed. The NMME is not able to capture the extremes of seasonal mean rainfall and the simulated Indian Ocean-monsoon teleconnections are opposite to what are observed.

Research Organization:
George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
FG02-00ER41132
OSTI ID:
1623607
Journal Information:
Climate Dynamics, Journal Name: Climate Dynamics Journal Issue: 12 Vol. 53; ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer-VerlagCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (1)

Probabilistic predictions of the Indian monsoon rainfall in below-normal category using NMME global model products journal September 2018

Figures / Tables (16)

Table 1(p. 3)table Table 1
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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Indian Monsoon
Interannual variability
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
telecommunications