Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity

Armour, Kyle C.; Proistosescu, Cristian; Dong, Yue; Hahn, Lily C.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward; Pauling, Andrew G.; Jnglin Wills, Robert C.; Andrews, Timothy; Stuecker, Malte F.; Po-Chedley, Stephen; Mitevski, Ivan; Forster, Piers M.; Gregory, Jonathan M.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2312093121

Title: Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity

Journal Article · Mon Mar 11 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2312093121· OSTI ID:2322602

^[1];

^[2]; Dong, Yue ^[3];

^[4];

^[5]; Pauling, Andrew G. ^[6];

^[7]; Andrews, Timothy ^[8];

^[9];

^[10];

^[11]; Forster, Piers M. ^[12]; Gregory, Jonathan M. ^[13]

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
Department of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61801, Department of Earth Sciences and Environmental Change, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61801
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, NZ 9016
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, CH 8092
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Department of Oceanography and International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6ET, United Kingdom

The observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR)—key metrics of the global climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing. Using CMIP5/6 models, we show that the inter-model relationship between warming and these climate sensitivity metrics (the basis for the constraint) arises from a similarity in transient and equilibrium warming patterns within the models, producing an effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) governing recent warming that is comparable to the value of ECS governing long-term warming under CO $_{2}$ forcing. However, CMIP5/6 historical simulations do not reproduce observed warming patterns. When driven by observed patterns, even high ECS models produce low EffCS values consistent with the observed global warming rate. The inability of CMIP5/6 models to reproduce observed warming patterns thus results in a bias in the modeled relationship between recent global warming and climate sensitivity. Correcting for this bias means that observed warming is consistent with wide ranges of ECS and TCR extending to higher values than previously recognized. These findings are corroborated by energy balance model simulations and coupled model (CESM1-CAM5) simulations that better replicate observed patterns via tropospheric wind nudging or Antarctic meltwater fluxes. Because CMIP5/6 models fail to simulate observed warming patterns, proposed warming-based constraints on ECS, TCR, and projected global warming are biased low. The results reinforce recent findings that the unique pattern of observed warming has slowed global-mean warming over recent decades and that how the pattern will evolve in the future represents a major source of uncertainty in climate projections.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0022110

OSTI ID:: 2322602

Journal Information:: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Vol. 121 Journal Issue: 12; ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:: Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (78)

Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Stolpe, Martin B.; Sippel, Sebastian Science Advances, Vol. 6, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549	journal	March 2020
Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient Watanabe, Masahiro; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Kosaka, Yu Nature Climate Change, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00933-3	journal	October 2020
Analyzing the dependence of global cloud feedback on the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature change with a G reen's function approach Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001096	journal	September 2017
Impact of Winds and Southern Ocean SSTs on Antarctic Sea Ice Trends and Variability Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward; Roach, Lettie A.; Donohoe, Aaron Journal of Climate, Vol. 34, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0386.1	journal	February 2021
The Climate Response to the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption Does Not Constrain Climate Sensitivity Pauling, Andrew G.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Armour, Kyle C. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 50, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102946	journal	March 2023
Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks Armour, Kyle C. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3278	journal	April 2017
Emergent constraints on Earth’s transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO2 from post-1970s global warming Jiménez-de-la-Cuesta, Diego; Mauritsen, Thorsten Nature Geoscience, Vol. 12, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y	journal	October 2019
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization Eyring, Veronika; Bony, Sandrine; Meehl, Gerald A. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016	journal	January 2016
Shutdown of Southern Ocean convection controls long-term greenhouse gas-induced warming Gjermundsen, Ada; Nummelin, Aleksi; Olivié, Dirk Nature Geoscience, Vol. 14, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00825-x	journal	September 2021
Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part II: Representation of the Efficacy of Deep-Ocean Heat Uptake and Validation for CMIP5 AOGCMs Geoffroy, O.; Saint-Martin, D.; Bellon, G. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00196.1	journal	March 2013
Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Through Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum Zhu, Jiang; Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.; Brady, Esther C. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 48, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091220	journal	February 2021
Reducing Uncertainties in Climate Projections with Emergent Constraints: Concepts, Examples and Prospects Brient, Florent Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 37, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-9140-8	journal	December 2019
Taking climate model evaluation to the next level Eyring, Veronika; Cox, Peter M.; Flato, Gregory M. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y	journal	January 2019
Evaluating Emergent Constraints on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0631.1	journal	May 2018
Effective Radiative Forcing in a GCM With Fixed Surface Temperatures Andrews, Timothy; Smith, Christopher J.; Myhre, Gunnar Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 126, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033880	journal	February 2021
Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2828	journal	October 2016
Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases Seager, Richard; Cane, Mark; Henderson, Naomi Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0505-x	journal	June 2019
Two-Way Teleconnections between the Southern Ocean and the Tropical Pacific via a Dynamic Feedback Dong, Yue; Armour, Kyle C.; Battisti, David S. Journal of Climate, Vol. 35, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0080.1	journal	October 2022
Efficacy of climate forcings Hansen, J. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 110, Issue D18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005776	journal	January 2005
The Dependence of Global Cloud and Lapse Rate Feedbacks on the Spatial Structure of Tropical Pacific Warming Andrews, Timothy; Webb, Mark J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0087.1	journal	January 2018
La Niña–like Mean-State Response to Global Warming and Potential Oceanic Roles Kohyama, Tsubasa; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Battisti, David S. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0441.1	journal	May 2017
Suppressed Late‐20th Century Warming in CMIP6 Models Explained by Forcing and Feedbacks Smith, Christopher J.; Forster, Piers M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 48, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094948	journal	September 2021
Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models Nijsse, Femke J. M. M.; Cox, Peter M.; Williamson, Mark S. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020	journal	January 2020
Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations Dong, Yue; Armour, Kyle C.; Proistosescu, Cristian Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 48, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095778	journal	December 2021
Intermodel Spread in the Pattern Effect and Its Contribution to Climate Sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models Dong, Yue; Armour, Kyle C.; Zelinka, Mark D. Journal of Climate, Vol. 33, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1011.1	journal	September 2020
Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change Hall, Alex; Cox, Peter; Huntingford, Chris Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6	journal	March 2019
Relationship of tropospheric stability to climate sensitivity and Earth’s observed radiation budget Ceppi, Paulo; Gregory, Jonathan M. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 50 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1714308114	journal	November 2017
Climate Model Projections of 21st Century Global Warming Constrained Using the Observed Warming Trend Liang, Yongxiao; Gillett, Nathan P.; Monahan, Adam H. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 47, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086757	journal	June 2020
Probing the Sources of Uncertainty in Transient Warming on Different Timescales Lutsko, Nicholas J.; Popp, Max Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084018	journal	October 2019
Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming McGregor, Shayne; Timmermann, Axel; Stuecker, Malte F. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2330	journal	August 2014
Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Roe, Gerard H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00544.1	journal	July 2013
Antarctic Ice‐Sheet Meltwater Reduces Transient Warming and Climate Sensitivity Through the Sea‐Surface Temperature Pattern Effect Dong, Yue; Pauling, Andrew G.; Sadai, Shaina Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 49, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101249	journal	December 2022
Spurious Late Historical‐Era Warming in CESM2 Driven by Prescribed Biomass Burning Emissions Fasullo, J. T.; Lamarque, Jean‐Francois; Hannay, Cecile Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 49, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097420	journal	January 2022
Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity Proistosescu, Cristian; Huybers, Peter J. Science Advances, Vol. 3, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1602821	journal	July 2017
Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem Hausfather, Zeke; Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A. Nature, Vol. 605, Issue 7908 https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01192-2	journal	May 2022
Impacts of Broad-Scale Surface Freshening of the Southern Ocean in a Coupled Climate Model Purich, Ariaan; England, Matthew H.; Cai, Wenju Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0092.1	journal	April 2018
Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0027-1	journal	October 2015
Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining Caldwell, Peter M.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Zelinka, Mark D. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059205	journal	March 2014
The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity Lewis, Nicholas; Curry, Judith Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0667.1	journal	August 2018
The climate response to CO ₂ of the Hadley Centre coupled AOGCM with and without flux adjustment Gregory, J. M.; Mitchell, J. F. B. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 24, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL01930	journal	August 1997
Ocean surface temperature variability: Large model–data differences at decadal and longer periods Laepple, Thomas; Huybers, Peter Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 47 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1412077111	journal	November 2014
Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2888	journal	December 2015
Delayed Antarctic sea-ice decline in high-resolution climate change simulations Rackow, Thomas; Danilov, Sergey; Goessling, Helge F. Nature Communications, Vol. 13, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28259-y	journal	February 2022
The Peculiar Trajectory of Global Warming Fueglistaler, S.; Silvers, L. G. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 126, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033629	journal	February 2021
Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends Kostov, Yavor; Ferreira, David; Armour, Kyle C. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964	journal	January 2018
Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076468	journal	February 2018
The Role of Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Heat Uptake on AOGCM Transient Temperature Response Raper, Sarah C. B.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Stouffer, Ronald J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0124:TROCSA>2.0.CO;2	journal	January 2002
Attributing Historical and Future Evolution of Radiative Feedbacks to Regional Warming Patterns using a Green’s Function Approach: The Preeminence of the Western Pacific Dong, Yue; Proistosescu, Cristian; Armour, Kyle C. Journal of Climate, Vol. 32, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0843.1	journal	September 2019
Relative roles of surface temperature and climate forcing patterns in the inconstancy of radiative feedbacks: Inconstancy of Radiative Feedbacks Haugstad, A. D.; Armour, K. C.; Battisti, D. S. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074372	journal	July 2017
Asymmetric Warming/Cooling Response to CO₂ Increase/Decrease Mainly Due To Non‐Logarithmic Forcing, Not Feedbacks Mitevski, Ivan; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Orbe, Clara Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 49, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097133	journal	March 2022
Subtropical clouds key to Southern Ocean teleconnections to the tropical Pacific Kim, Hanjun; Kang, Sarah M.; Kay, Jennifer E. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 119, Issue 34 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2200514119	journal	August 2022
Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect on time-dependent climate change Gregory, J. M. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 16, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820000059	journal	July 2000
Energy budget constraints on climate response Otto, Alexander; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Boucher, Olivier Nature Geoscience, Vol. 6, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1836	journal	May 2013
Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models Zelinka, Mark D.; Myers, Timothy A.; McCoy, Daniel T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 47, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782	journal	January 2020
How accurately can the climate sensitivity to $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$CO2 be estimated from historical climate change? Gregory, J. M.; Andrews, T.; Ceppi, P. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 54, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04991-y	journal	October 2019
The Dependence of Radiative Forcing and Feedback on Evolving Patterns of Surface Temperature Change in Climate Models Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00545.1	journal	February 2015
Making climate projections conditional on historical observations Ribes, Aurélien; Qasmi, Saïd; Gillett, Nathan P. Science Advances, Vol. 7, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc0671	journal	January 2021
Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming Po-Chedley, Stephen; Santer, Benjamin D.; Fueglistaler, Stephan Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 118, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2020962118	journal	March 2021
The inconstancy of the transient climate response parameter under increasing CO ₂ Gregory, J. M.; Andrews, T.; Good, P. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 373, Issue 2054 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0417	journal	November 2015
The Response of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Sea Ice to Freshwater from Ice Shelves in an Earth System Model Pauling, Andrew G.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Smith, Inga J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0501.1	journal	March 2016
The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6 Pincus, Robert; Forster, Piers M.; Stevens, Bjorn Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3447-2016	journal	January 2016
Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Henley, Benjamin J.; Meehl, Gerald; Power, Scott B. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5cc8	journal	March 2017
Pacific trade winds accelerated by aerosol forcing over the past two decades Takahashi, Chiharu; Watanabe, Masahiro Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2996	journal	April 2016
On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback Andrews, Timothy; Bodas‐Salcedo, Alejandro; Gregory, Jonathan M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 127, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036675	journal	September 2022
An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence Sherwood, S. C.; Webb, M. J.; Annan, J. D. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 58, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678	journal	September 2020
Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012 Allan, Richard P.; Liu, Chunlei; Loeb, Norman G. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060962	journal	August 2014
Probing the Fast and Slow Components of Global Warming by Returning Abruptly to Preindustrial Forcing Held, Isaac M.; Winton, Michael; Takahashi, Ken Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3466.1	journal	May 2010
Model tropical Atlantic biases underpin diminished Pacific decadal variability McGregor, Shayne; Stuecker, Malte F.; Kajtar, Jules B. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0163-4	journal	May 2018
Explaining Forcing Efficacy With Pattern Effect and State Dependence Zhou, C.; Wang, M.; Zelinka, M. D. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 50, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101700	journal	February 2023
Climate Sensitivity of GFDL's CM4.0 Winton, M.; Adcroft, A.; Dunne, J. P. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001838	journal	January 2020
What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections? Grose, Michael R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Colman, Robert Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075742	journal	February 2018
The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Koven, Charles D. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 12, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021	journal	January 2021
Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change Wills, Robert C. J.; Dong, Yue; Proistosecu, Cristian Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 49, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100011	journal	September 2022
An Updated Assessment of Near‐Surface Temperature Change From 1850: The HadCRUT5 Data Set Morice, C. P.; Kennedy, J. J.; Rayner, N. A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 126, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032361	journal	February 2021
The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates Lewis, Nicholas; Curry, Judith A. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 45, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2342-y	journal	September 2014
The Antarctic ozone hole and the pattern effect on climate sensitivity Hartmann, Dennis L. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 119, Issue 35 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2207889119	journal	August 2022
Global and regional variability in marine surface temperatures Laepple, T.; Huybers, P. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059345	journal	April 2014
Variation in climate sensitivity and feedback parameters during the historical period: VARIATION IN CLIMATE SENSITIVITY Gregory, J. M.; Andrews, T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068406	journal	April 2016

Similar Records

Evaluation of global simulations of aerosol particle and cloud condensation nuclei number, with implications for cloud droplet formation

Journal Article · Mon Jul 08 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online) · OSTI ID:2322602

Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria; Nenes, Athanasios; +36 more

Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations

Journal Article · Thu Dec 23 00:00:00 EST 2021 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:2322602

Dong, Yue; Armour, Kyle C.; Proistosescu, Cristian; +6 more

Assessing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions over the global ocean

Journal Article · Mon Nov 07 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · OSTI ID:2322602

Wall, Casey J.; Norris, Joel R.; Possner, Anna; +3 more

Title: Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity

Citation Formats

References (78)

Similar Records

Related Subjects