Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations

Dong, Yue; Armour, Kyle C.; Proistosescu, Cristian; Andrews, Timothy; Battisti, David S.; Forster, Piers M.; Paynter, David; Smith, Christopher J.; Shiogama, Hideo

doi:10.1029/2021GL095778

Title: Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations

Journal Article · Thu Dec 23 00:00:00 EST 2021 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095778· OSTI ID:1837457

^[1]; Armour, Kyle C. ^[2];

^[3];

^[4]; Battisti, David S. ^[1];

^[5]; Paynter, David ^[6];

^[7];

^[8]

Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Seattle WA USA
Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Seattle WA USA, School of Oceanography University of Washington Seattle WA USA
Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Department of Geology University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana‐Champaign IL USA
Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK
School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Leeds UK
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton University Princeton NJ USA
School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Leeds UK, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg Austria
National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba Japan

Abstract This study assesses the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) and transient climate response (TCR) derived from global energy budget constraints within historical simulations of eight CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). These calculations are enabled by use of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) simulations, which permit accurate quantification of the radiative forcing. Long‐term historical energy budget constraints generally underestimate EffCS from CO ₂ quadrupling and TCR from CO ₂ ramping, owing to changes in radiative feedbacks and changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Atmospheric GCMs forced by observed warming patterns produce lower values of EffCS that are more in line with those inferred from observed historical energy budget changes. The differences in the EffCS estimates from historical energy budget constraints of models and observations are traced to discrepancies between modeled and observed historical surface warming patterns.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1837457

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 48 Journal Issue: 24; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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