Dynamic assessment of urban economy-environment-energy system using system dynamics model: A case study in Beijing

Journal Article · Sun Jul 15 04:00:00 EDT 2018 · Environmental Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVRES.2018.01.029· OSTI ID:23105792

Wu, Desheng ^[1]; Ning, Shuang ^[1]

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1. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)

Highlights: • We combine System Dynamics model and Geographic Information System to analyze the energy-environment-economy (3E) system both temporally and spatially, which explicitly explore the interaction of economics, energy, and environment and effects of the key influencing factors. • Beijing is selected as a case study. • Alternative scenarios, e.g., current, technology, energy and environment scenarios are explored and compared. • Simulation results shows that, current scenario is not sustainable; technology scenario is applicable to economic growth; environment scenario maintains a balanced path of development for long term stability. Economic development, accompanying with environmental damage and energy depletion, becomes essential nowadays. There is a complicated and comprehensive interaction between economics, environment and energy. Understanding the operating mechanism of Energy-Environment-Economy model (3E) and its key factors is the inherent part in dealing with the issue. In this paper, we combine System Dynamics model and Geographic Information System to analyze the energy-environment-economy (3E) system both temporally and spatially, which explicitly explore the interaction of economics, energy, and environment and effects of the key influencing factors. Beijing is selected as a case study to verify our SD-GIS model. Alternative scenarios, e.g., current, technology, energy and environment scenarios are explored and compared. Simulation results shows that, current scenario is not sustainable; technology scenario is applicable to economic growth; environment scenario maintains a balanced path of development for long term stability. Policy-making insights are given based on our results and analysis.

• OSTI ID: 23105792
• Journal Information: Environmental Research, Journal Name: Environmental Research Vol. 164; ISSN ENVRAL; ISSN 0013-9351
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SYSTEMS
ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS
SIMULATION
STABILITY