Investigation of methodology for uncertainty quantification of model parameters
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Nuclear Science and Technology, 800 Dongchuan RD. Minhang District, Shanghai (China)
Quantifying the uncertainty contributors of best-estimate thermal hydraulic code is getting more and more attention in safety analysis of nuclear industry during recent decades. Yet for uncertainties of certain model parameters which may not be directly measured, the quantification process is usually subjective and inaccurate. This paper investigates the statistical methodologies in order to get the probability density function (pdf) of model parameters more objectively based on observed experimental responses. The simplification of mathematical model is described for the parameter estimation, and solutions based on Bayesian theorem and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) are classified and demonstrated for both deterministic approach and stochastic approach. As an application, the uncertainties of model parameters related to reflood phenomena implemented in RELAP5 code are quantified. It is indicated that the statistical method which is independent of best-estimate code is feasible and easy to apply. And through the check of uncertainty propagation, it demonstrates that the uncertainty bands can envelope most of the experiment measurement with advantage of accuracy. (authors)
- Research Organization:
- American Nuclear Society - ANS, Thermal Hydraulics Division, 555 North Kensington Avenue, La Grange Park, IL 60526 (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 22977511
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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