The Casualidad method for uncertainty evaluation of best-estimate system thermal-hydraulics calculations
- Nuclear and INdustrial Engineering-NINE, Borgo Giannotti 19, Lucca (Italy)
The present paper deals with the description of the salient features of three independent approaches for estimating uncertainties associated with predictions of complex system codes. The first approach is the 'standard' one and the most used at the industrial level: it is based upon the selection of input uncertain parameters, on assigning related ranges of variations and, possibly, PDF (Probability Density Functions) and on performing a suitable number of code runs to get the combined effect of variation on the results. In the second approach the uncertainty derives from the comparison between relevant measured data and results of corresponding code calculations. The third approach is based on the Bayesian inference technique and on the availability of experimental data by which computer model predictions can be improved and the ranges of variation of (in theory) 'all' input parameters can be characterized. More details are provided in respect with the third approach that has been named CASUALIDAD (Code with the capability of Adjoint Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis by Internal Data Adjustment and assimilation). (authors)
- Research Organization:
- American Nuclear Society - ANS, Thermal Hydraulics Division, 555 North Kensington Avenue, La Grange Park, IL 60526 (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 22977510
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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