Cost Analysis and Projections for U.S.-Manufactured Automotive Lithium-ion Batteries

Technical Report · Mon Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 2024

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/2280913· OSTI ID:2280913

Knehr, Kevin ^[1]; Kubal, Joseph ^[1]; Ahmed, Shabbir ^[1]

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1. Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

This document reports on a study conducted to estimate the cost of U.S-produced automotive battery packs for model years (MY) 2023 to 2035, using Argonne National Laboratory’s BatPaC tool. The costs were estimated by designing batteries for several classes of vehicles for four discrete model years (2023, 2026, 2030, and 2035), where a representative battery technology and material prices are selected based on information available today. Correlations were developed from the four discrete years to enable annual pack cost estimates as a function of pack size (kWh) and model year. A consolidated cost curve was then developed that includes battery size, technology by model year, and the anticipated sales volumes of each class of vehicles over the years. This cost curve estimates the volume-averaged, U.S.-manufactured battery pack cost of PHEVs and BEVs in the United States to be $$\$$140$/kWh for the model year 2023, which will reduce to $$\$$86$/kWh in MY2035. Applying tax credits from section 45X of the Inflation Reduction Act can further reduce the average pack cost to as low as $$\$$56$/kWh in MY2029. The report also includes several sensitivity studies that investigate the effect of pack production volume, material prices, fast charge requirements, and labor rates.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-06CH11357
• OSTI ID: 2280913
• Report Number(s): ANL/CSE--24/1; 187177
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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