Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability

Capotondi, Antonietta; McGregor, Shayne; McPhaden, Michael J.; Cravatte, Sophie; Holbrook, Neil J.; Imada, Yukiko; Sanchez, Sara C.; Sprintall, Janet; Stuecker, Malte F.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Zeller, Mathias; Farneti, Riccardo; Graffino, Giorgio; Hu, Shijian; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Kosaka, Yu; Kucharski, Fred; Mayer, Michael; Qiu, Bo; Santoso, Agus; Taschetto, Andréa S.; Wang, Fan; Zhang, Xuebin; Holmes, Ryan M.; Luo, Jing-Jia; Maher, Nicola; Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian; Meehl, Gerald A.; Naha, Rajashree; Schneider, Niklas; Stevenson, Samantha; Sullivan, Arnold; van Rensch, Peter; Xu, Tongtong

doi:10.1038/s43017-023-00486-x

Title: Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability

Journal Article · Wed Oct 18 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00486-x· OSTI ID:2203838

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Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Physical Sciences Laboratory
Monash Univ., Clayton, VIC (Australia); ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Clayton, VIC (Australia)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Seattle, WA (United States). Pacific Marine Environmental Lab. (PMEL)
Laboratory of Space, Geophysical and Oceanographic Studies (LEGOS), Toulouse (France); Univ. of Toulouse (France); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) (France); French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD), Noumea (New Caledonia)
Univ. of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS (Australia); ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Hobart, TAS (Australia)
Univ. of Tokyo (Japan)
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)
Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States)
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States); ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel (Germany)
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy)
Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Qingdao (China). Institute of Oceanology
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast, Reading (United Kingdom); Univ. of Vienna (Austria)
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW (Australia); Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Hobart, TAS (Australia). Climate Science Centre
Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China)
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Australian National Univ., Canberra, ACT (Australia); ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Canberra, ACT (Australia)
Universidad Adolfo Ibanez, Santiago (Chile); Data Observatory Foundation, Santiago (Chile)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Monash Univ., Clayton, VIC (Australia)
Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Aspendale, VIC (Australia). Oceans and Atmosphere

Naturally occurring tropical Pacific variations at timescales of 7–70 years — tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) — describe basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST), sea-level pressure and heat content anomalies. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain TPDV, which can originate through oceanic processes, atmospheric processes or as an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) residual. In this Review, we synthesize knowledge of these mechanisms, their characteristics and contribution to TPDV. Oceanic processes include off-equatorial Rossby waves, which mediate oceanic adjustment and contribute to variations in equatorial thermocline depth and SST; variations in the strength of the shallow upper-ocean overturning circulation, which exhibit a large anti-correlation with equatorial Pacific SST at interannual and decadal timescales; and the propagation of salinity-compensated temperature (spiciness) anomalies from the subtropics to the equatorial thermocline. Atmospheric processes include midlatitude internal variability leading to tropical and subtropical wind anomalies, which result in equatorial SST anomalies and feedbacks that enhance persistence; and atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic and Indian Ocean SST variability, which induce winds conducive to decadal anomalies of the opposite sign in the Pacific. Although uncertain, the tropical adjustment through Rossby wave activity is likely a dominant mechanism. Finally, a deeper understanding of the origin and spectral characteristics of TPDV-related winds is a key priority.

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Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0022070; SC0023228; SC0019418

OSTI ID:: 2203838

Journal Information:: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Vol. 4; ISSN 2662-138X

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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