Estimation and interpretation of k{sub eff} confidence intervals in MCNP

Technical Report · Wed Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1995

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/212564· OSTI ID:212564

Urbatsch, T J ^[1]; Forster, R A; Prael, R E; Beckman, R J ^[2]

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1. Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering
2. Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

MCNP`s criticality methodology and some basic statistics are reviewed. Confidence intervals are discussed, as well as how to build them and their importance in the presentation of a Monte Carlo result. The combination of MCNP`s three k{sub eff} estimators is shown, theoretically and empirically, by statistical studies and examples, to be the best k{sub eff} estimator. The method of combining estimators is based on a solid theoretical foundation, namely, the Gauss-Markov Theorem in regard to the least squares method. The confidence intervals of the combined estimator are also shown to have correct coverage rates for the examples considered.

• Research Organization: Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-36
• OSTI ID: 212564
• Report Number(s): LA--12658-MS; ON: DE96008882
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS
42 ENGINEERING
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
CRITICALITY
DATA
LEAST SQUARE FIT
M CODES
MONTE CARLO METHOD
MULTIPLICATION FACTORS
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION