The effects of regional climate change on space conditioning needs and the energy industry in the Great Lakes region

Technical Report · Fri Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1996

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/208354· OSTI ID:208354

Fernau, M E; Maloney, E D ^[1]; Bates, G T ^[2]

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1. Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)
2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

To date, studies of the effects of potential climate change on energy use and demand have been done on a macro scale or with coarse model data but it is regional climate change effects that will determine the behavior of energy users. The output from a 3-year simulation (both base case and doubled CO{sub 2} conditions) of the coupled NCAR CCM/MM4 regional (60 km resolution) climate modeling system is used to examine changes in average temperature and temperature variability on a regional scale, the impacts of such change on the need for space conditioning in the Great Lakes region, and the subsequent changes in energy demand. From these results, changes in heating and cooling degree days, and changes in consecutive days above or below various temperature thresholds were calculated. The model results indicate that the changed climate under doubled carbon dioxide conditions would have large impacts on energy use, although it is difficult to determine the balance between decreased heating needs and increased cooling needs. Biases are present in the temperature output of the modeling system. However, the model shows promise for regional studies and the recent successful coupling of a one-dimensional thermal eddy diffusion model to the NCAR modeling system to represent the Great Lakes promises that the next iteration of climate change output from the NCAR system will yield important results when applied to effects studies.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States); National Science Foundation, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 208354
• Report Number(s): ANL/DIS/PP--81461; ON: DE96007633
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
AIR CONDITIONING
CLIMATIC CHANGE
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY MODELS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
FORECASTING