The effects of regional climate change on space conditioning needs and the energy industry in the Great Lakes region

Conference · Fri Dec 31 04:00:00 EST 1993

OSTI ID:10110354

Fernau, M E; Maloney, E D ^[1]; Bates, G T ^[2]

---

1. Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)
2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

To date, studies of the effects of potential climate change on energy use and demand have been done on a macro scale or with coarse model data but, in reality, regional climate change effects will determine the actual behavior of energy users. The output from a 3-year simulation of the coupled NCAR CCM/MM4 regional climate modeling system is used to examine changes in average temperature and temperature variability on a regional scale, the impacts of such change on the need for space conditioning in the Great Lakes region, and the subsequent changes in energy demand. The NCAR modeling system uses general circulation model results to drive a more highly resolved mesoscale model to produce a detailed regional climate. A 3-year run of both base case and doubled CO{sub 2} climate for the United States has been produced. From these results, changes in heating and cooling degree days, and changes in consecutive days above or below various temperature thresholds were calculated. Heating and cooling energy use intensities that are representative of the residential building stock found in the region were used to convert climate data to energy demand. The implications for the energy industry are discussed. The model results indicate that the changed climate under doubled carbon dioxide conditions would have large impacts on energy use, although it is difficult to determine the balance between decreased heating needs and increased cooling needs. It was found that biases present in the temperature output of the modeling system are greater for the Great Lakes region than for the rest of the U.S. and limit the usefulness of the present data set for determining the effects of climate change on energy use in that area.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 10110354
• Report Number(s): ANL/DIS/CP--81461; CONF-9310135--3; ON: DE94004610
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320000
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
BUILDINGS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATIC CHANGE
ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND FORECASTING
USA