Energy intensity and carbon emission responses to technological change: The U.S. outlook
Technological progress, energy use, energy intensity, and carbon mitigation are tightly intertwined concepts within the worldwide climate change debate. The state-of-the-art National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used to examine, for the US: (a) the potential role of technological progress on energy supply, consumption, and prices in US energy markets and their impact on carbon emissions; (b) how success on one side of the supply or demand equation may reduce the potential benefits of technological progress on the other side; and (c) the sensitivity of energy intensity in the US to technological change and adoption. Some of the key findings of the analysis include: (a) technological progress alone (without significant and effective new policies) is insufficient to achieve reduction of carbon emissions at or near 1990 levels by 2010; (b) successful R and D programs that improve the availability and market acceptance of cost-efficient transportation technologies, coupled with successful oil and gas supply R and D programs, could have a significant impact on reducing US dependence on imported oil; (c) the annual rate of decline of energy intensity (primary energy used per dollar of GDP) between 1996 and 2015 appears to be bounded by 1.25% when real energy prices are relatively stable or gradually rising, even when more advanced technologies are made available to the market.
- Research Organization:
- Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (US)
- OSTI ID:
- 20013730
- Journal Information:
- Energy Journal, Vol. 20, Issue 3; Other Information: PBD: 1999; ISSN 0195-6574
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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