Vehicle Technologies and Fuel Cell Technologies Office Research and Development Programs: Prospective Benefits Assessment for Medium- and Heavy-duty Vehicles
- Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
- Energetics, Inc., Columbia, MD (United States)
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Through a diverse set of programs, the Vehicle Technologies and Fuel Cell Technologies Offices of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) invest in early-stage vehicle and fuel cell research. The Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and the Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO) are two offices that are encompassed within EERE’s Sustainable Transportation pillar. VTO conducts research and development (R&D) to provide low-cost, reliable, and efficient energy for the transportation of goods and people across America. FCTO has a comprehensive portfolio of activities that address the barriers facing the development and implementation of hydrogen and fuel cells, with the ultimate goals of decreasing our dependence on oil, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and enabling clean, reliable power generation through both transportation and stationary uses of hydrogen. This report quantifies the vehicle-level and national-level benefits of successful VTO and FCTO R&D applied to medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. The benefits estimated include reductions in energy use and GHG emissions from and changes in expenditures on medium- and heavy-duty vehicles on the road in the United States through the year 2050. The potential future benefits of successfully developing and implementing these technologies were analyzed by comparing a “Program Success” case to a base case (the “No Program” case). The Program Success case represents the future with successful implementation of VTO and FCTO technologies. The No Program case represents a future in which VTO or FCTO do not contribute to these technologies after Fiscal Year (FY) 2019. Three side cases were analyzed to assess the sensitivity of the projections of market adoption to future electricity prices (including infrastructure costs), the availability of electricity and hydrogen at public stations, and fuel cell system efficiency. Advanced vehicle technologies supported by VTO and FCTO programs can greatly increase the fuel economy of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. As a result of EERE-supported technologies, the sales-weighted average fuel economy of the fleet of all new Class 7 and 8 trucks in the Program Success case is projected to be 1.2 times that of the trucks in the No Program case in 2035 and 1.3 times the baseline in 2050. These technologies in Classes 4–6 increase fuel economy by a factor of 1.46 in 2035 and 1.78 in 2050. The fuel economy of the entire on-road medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleet, including all fuel types, is projected to be higher by 10%, reaching 9.1 mpgde in 2035, and by 25%, reaching 11.0 mpgde in 2050. The resulting petroleum savings in 2050 were estimated to be 0.75 million barrels per day, and reductions in GHG emissions in 2050 were estimated to 110 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq) per year. Such petroleum reductions result in significant reductions in fuel expenditure for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, totaling approximately $37 billion annually by 2035. Figure ES-1 shows the difference in projected consumption of diesel fuel, electricity, and hydrogen in the No Program and Program Success cases. Negative values show the reduction in the Program Success case, relative to the No Program case.
- Research Organization:
- Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Office of Sustainable Transportation. Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC02-06CH11357
- OSTI ID:
- 1618829
- Report Number(s):
- ANL-19/58; 159002
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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