Global variance decomposition of downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections

Dataset · Mon Aug 14 04:00:00 EDT 2023

DOI:https://doi.org/10.57931/1994827· OSTI ID:1994827

Lafferty, David ^[1]; Sriver, Ryan ^[2]

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1. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
2. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

This dataset provides the results of a global variance decomposition of downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections. The total projection variance for a set of climate metrics is partitioned into contributions from: scenario uncertainty, model/GCM uncertainty, downscaling and bias-correction uncertainty, and interannual variability. The contribution from each source is expressed as a percentage of the total variance. Seven climate metrics are analyzed: Annual average temperature (avg_tas.nc) Annual total precipitation (tot_pr.nc) Annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (max_tasmax.nc) Annual maximum 1-day precipitation (max_pr.nc) Annual number of extremely hot days (hot_days.nc) Annual number of extremely wet days (wet_days.nc) Annual number of dry days (dry_days.nc) Extremely hot/wet days are defined to occur when temperature/precipitation exceeds the local 99th percentile defined over 1980-2014. Dry days are defined to occur when daily precipitation is less than 1mm. all_metrics_timesliced.nc gives the results for all metrics averaged over three 20-year periods: 2020-2039, 2050-2069, 2080-2099. For more details on the methods, see: Lafferty & Sriver, Downscaling and bias-correction contribute considerable uncertainty to local climate projections in CMIP6, npj Climate & Atmospheric Science (2023) An interactive visualization of this data can be found at: https://lafferty-sriver-2023-downscaling-uncertainty.msdlive.org

• Research Organization: MultiSector Dynamics - Living, Intuitive, Value-adding, Environment
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
• OSTI ID: 1994827
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English