Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change

Woolway, R. Iestyn; Denfeld, Blaize; Tan, Zeli; Jansen, Joachim; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; La Fuente, Sofia

doi:10.1002/lol2.10231

Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change

Journal Article · Thu Dec 09 00:00:00 EST 2021 · Limnology and Oceanography Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10231· OSTI ID:1988255

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[4]; La Fuente, Sofia ^[5]

Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Uppsala Univ. (Sweden)
Dundalk Institute of Technology (Ireland)

Millions of lakes inversely stratify during winter. Seemingly subtle variations in the duration of winter stratification can have major ecological effects by, for example, altering the vertical distribution of oxygen and nutrients in lakes. Yet, the influence of climate change on winter stratification has been largely unexplored. To fill this knowledge gap, here we used a lake-climate model ensemble to investigate changes in winter stratification from 1901 to 2099 across 12,242 representative lakes situated throughout the Northern Hemisphere. By the end of the 21st century, winter stratification duration is projected to shorten by an average of 18.5–53.9 d under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Projected changes are faster in warmer geographical regions, in which 35–69% of lakes will no longer inversely stratify by 2070–2099 under RCPs 2.6–8.5. This shortening and loss of winter stratification will likely have numerous implications for lakes, including the misalignment of lifecycle events causing shifts in biodiversity.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); Swedish Infrastructure for Ecosystem Science (SITES); Swedish Research Council (VR); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1988255

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-167310

Journal Information:: Limnology and Oceanography Letters, Journal Name: Limnology and Oceanography Letters Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 7; ISSN 2378-2242

Publisher:: Association for the Sciences of Limnology and OceanographyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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