Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

Woolway, R. Iestyn; Sharma, Sapna; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Debolskiy, Andrey; Golub, Malgorzata; Mercado-Bettín, Daniel; Perroud, Marjorie; Stepanenko, Victor; Tan, Zeli; Grant, Luke; Ladwig, Robert; Mesman, Jorrit; Moore, Tadhg N.; Shatwell, Tom; Vanderkelen, Inne; Austin, Jay A.; DeGasperi, Curtis L.; Dokulil, Martin; La Fuente, Sofia; Mackay, Eleanor B.; Schladow, S. Geoffrey; Watanabe, Shohei; Marcé, Rafael; Pierson, Don C.; Thiery, Wim; Jennings, Eleanor

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

Journal Article · Mon Apr 19 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4· OSTI ID:1804469

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; Debolskiy, Andrey ^[4]; Golub, Malgorzata ^[3]; ^[5]; Perroud, Marjorie ^[6]; Stepanenko, Victor ^[7]; ^[8]; Grant, Luke ^[9]; ^[10]; ^[11]; ^[12]; ^[13]; ^[9]; ^[14]; ^[15]; Dokulil, Martin ^[16]; ^[12]; Mackay, Eleanor B. ^[17] more »

Dundalk Institute of Technology (Ireland); European Space Agency Climate Office (ECSAT), Didcot (United Kingdom)
York Univ., Toronto, ON (Canada)
Uppsala Univ. (Sweden)
Moscow State Univ., Moscow (Russian Federation); Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Moscow (Russian Federation); Moscow Center of Fundamental and Applied Mathematics (Russian Federation)
Catalan Institute for Water Research, Girona (Spain); University of Girona (Spain)
Univ. of Geneva (Switzerland)
Moscow State Univ., Moscow (Russian Federation); Moscow Center of Fundamental and Applied Mathematics (Russian Federation)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Vrije Universiteit, Brussels (Belgium)
Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
Uppsala Univ. (Sweden); Univ. of Geneva (Switzerland)
Dundalk Institute of Technology (Ireland)
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Magdeburg (Germany)
University of Minnesota Duluth, MN (United States)
King County Water and Land Resources Division, Seattle, WA (United States)
University of Innsbruck, Mondsee (Austria)
Lancaster Environment Centre (United Kingdom)
Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1804469

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--161779

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 12; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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