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Madden-Julian oscillation influences United States springtime tornado and hail frequency

Journal Article · · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
 [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL (United States)
  2. Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Santiago (Chile)
+ Show Author Affiliations
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics and has a documented influence on extratropical extreme weather through modulation of synoptic atmospheric conditions. MJO phase has been correlated with anomalous tornado and severe hail frequency in the United States (US). However, the robustness of this relationship is unsettled, and the variability of physical pathways to modulation is poorly understood, despite the socioeconomic impacts that tornadoes and hail evoke. We approached this problem using pentad MJO indices and practically perfect severe weather hindcasts. MJO lifecycles were cataloged and clustered to document variability and potential pathways to enhanced subseasonal tornado and hail predictability. Statistically significant increases in US tornado and hail probabilities were documented 3–4 weeks following the period of the strongest upper-level divergence for the 53 active MJO events that propagated past the Maritime continent, contrasting with the 47 MJO events that experienced the barrier effect, during boreal spring 1979–2019. The 53 MJO events that propagated past the Maritime continent revealed three prevailing MJO evolutions—each containing unique pathways and modulation of US tornado and hail frequency—advancing our knowledge and capability to anticipate these hazards at extended lead times.
Research Organization:
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF)
Sponsoring Organization:
National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-06CH11357
OSTI ID:
1982173
Journal Information:
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Name: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 5; ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher:
Springer NatureCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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