Demand Estimation of Net Metered Loads for Microgrid Restoration

Conference · Wed Mar 22 04:00:00 EDT 2023

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/ISGT51731.2023.10066395· OSTI ID:1971353

Jain, Akshay ^[1]; Liu, Chen-Ching ^[1]; Schneider, Kevin P. ^[2]; Tuffner, Francis K. ^[2]; Ton, Dan ^[3]

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1. Virginia Tech
2. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
3. DOE

Microgrids can experience frequency instability while operating in the islanded mode due to a significant demand generation imbalance. Presence of net metered (NM) loads can further complicate accurate demand forecasting. For these loads only the net demand, difference of load demand and generation, is available. This paper presents the various stages observed during microgrid restoration with high penetration of NM loads. Disaggregation of demand and generation from the net metered time series is shown to be essential for accurate demand forecasting in each of these stages. A disaggregation approach is proposed using correlation in the net metered data. Time series analysis is then used to forecast the demand in each stage of the microgrid restoration process. A case study using demand and generation time series data from residential loads, shows that the proposed approach is significantly more accurate for demand forecasting than using only the net-metered time series.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1971353
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-181135
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

demand forecasting
Microgrid
power system restoration
time series analysis