Uncertainty in Annual Energy Resulting from Uncertain Irradiance Measurements
- Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States)
We report an analysis quantifying the contribution to uncertainty in annual energy projections from uncertainty in ground-measured irradiance. Uncertainty in measured irradiance is quantified for eight instruments by the difference from a well maintained, secondary standard pyranometer which is regarded as truthful. We construct a statistical model of irradiance uncertainty and apply the model to generate a sample of 100 annual time series of irradiance for each instrument. The sample is propagated through a common performance model for a reference photovoltaic system to quantify variation in annual energy. Although the measured irradiance varies from the reference by a few percent (standard deviation of 1-2%) the uncertainty in annual energy is on the order of a fraction of one percent. We propose a model for a factor that represents uncertainty in modeled annual energy that arises from uncertainty in ground-measured irradiance.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
- DOE Contract Number:
- NA0003525
- OSTI ID:
- 1959813
- Report Number(s):
- SAND2022-7211C
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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