Evaluating Production Implications of Pressure Maintenance in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells using a Machine Learning Modeling Approach: Case Study in the Permian Basin
- National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
This study implements the proprietary machine learning-based model (model) developed under the 2022 study titled “Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach” for forecasting unconventional oil and gas production using well data from the Permian Basin. The model, developed using an exclusive dataset that includes time series production data from an operator in the Permian Basin, is designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottomhole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well-completion attributes. In this study, the model was explicitly applied to explore its utility to evaluate the impact of varying drawdown strategies on the production forecast of a well in the Permian Basin dataset. Managing pressure drawdown has been identified as a way to improve estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from unconventional shale wells due to the stress-dependent nature of fractures in shale reservoirs. Research has shown that applying a lower pressure drawdown helps to maintain the reservoir conductivity, resulting in higher productivity over the life of a well. Historic bottomhole pressure data from the well over time was used as a benchmark from which to set more and less aggressive pressure decline rates as bounding modeling cases. All pressure decline rates/strategies were forecasted over 5 years, and the model was used to generate oil, water, and gas prediction over the same timeframe. This report presents the results from the production forecast and discusses potential operational and economic implications, with contrasting perspectives between well productivity and profitability given typical oil and gas economics and the volatility in the oil and gas market.
- Research Organization:
- National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA, Morgantown, WV, and Albany, OR (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE)
- DOE Contract Number:
- FE0025912
- OSTI ID:
- 1958264
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/NETL-2023/4379
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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