Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development

Lim, Tse Yang; Stringfellow, Erin J.; Stafford, Celia A.; DiGennaro, Catherine; Homer, Jack B.; Wakeland, Wayne; Eggers, Sara L.; Kazemi, Reza; Glos, Lukas; Ewing, Emily G.; Bannister, Calvin B.; Humphreys, Keith; Throckmorton, Douglas C.; Jalali, Mohammad S.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2115714119

Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development

Journal Article · Tue May 31 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2115714119· OSTI ID:1905007

^[1]; Stringfellow, Erin J. ^[2]; Stafford, Celia A. ^[3]; DiGennaro, Catherine ^[2]; ^[4]; ^[5]; Eggers, Sara L. ^[6]; Kazemi, Reza ^[6]; ^[6]; ^[6]; Bannister, Calvin B. ^[6]; Humphreys, Keith ^[7]; Throckmorton, Douglas C. ^[6]; ^[8]

Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Silver Spring, MD (United States); OSTI
Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States)
Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States); Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Homer Consulting, Barrytown, NY (United States)
Portland State Univ., OR (United States)
U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Silver Spring, MD (United States)
Veterans Affairs Health Services Research Center, Palo Alto, CA (United States); Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States)

The opioid crisis remains one of the greatest public health challenges in the United States. The crisis is complex, with long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects, which creates a risk of unintended consequences and complicates policy decision-making. We present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), an operationally detailed national-level model of the opioid crisis, intended to enhance understanding of the crisis and guide policy decisions. Drawing on multiple data sources, SOURCE replicates how risks of opioid misuse initiation and overdose have evolved over time in response to behavioral and other changes and suggests how those risks may evolve in the future, providing a basis for projecting and analyzing potential policy impacts and solutions.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA); USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0014664

OSTI ID:: 1905007

Journal Information:: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Issue: 23 Vol. 119; ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:: National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (26)

Understanding Health Care as a Complex System Lipsitz, Lewis A. JAMA, Vol. 308, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2012.7551	journal	July 2012
Counterfeit Medications and Fentanyl Green, Traci C.; Gilbert, Michael JAMA Internal Medicine, Vol. 176, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.4310	journal	October 2016
Prevention of Prescription Opioid Misuse and Projected Overdose Deaths in the United States Chen, Qiushi; Larochelle, Marc R.; Weaver, Davis T. JAMA Network Open, Vol. 2, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2018.7621	journal	February 2019
Modeling Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Opioid-Related Morbidity and Mortality in the US Ballreich, Jeromie; Mansour, Omar; Hu, Ellen JAMA Network Open, Vol. 3, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.23677	journal	November 2020
Projected Estimates of Opioid Mortality After Community-Level Interventions Linas, Benjamin P.; Savinkina, Alexandra; Madushani, R. W. M. A. JAMA Network Open, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.37259	journal	February 2021
Model calibration as a testing strategy for system dynamics models Oliva, Rogelio European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 151, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00622-7	journal	December 2003
Distribution of take-home opioid antagonist kits during a synthetic opioid epidemic in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study Irvine, Michael A.; Buxton, Jane A.; Otterstatter, Michael The Lancet Public Health, Vol. 3, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30044-6	journal	May 2018
Fentanyl-contaminated cocaine outbreak with laboratory confirmation in New York City in 2019 DiSalvo, Philip; Cooper, Gail; Tsao, Jessica The American Journal of Emergency Medicine, Vol. 40 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajem.2020.12.002	journal	February 2021
Data Needs in Opioid Systems Modeling: Challenges and Future Directions Jalali, Mohammad S.; Ewing, Emily; Bannister, Calvin B. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, Vol. 60, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2020.08.017	journal	February 2021
Impact of a community-based naloxone distribution program on opioid overdose death rates Naumann, Rebecca B.; Durrance, Christine Piette; Ranapurwala, Shabbar I. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, Vol. 204 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2019.06.038	journal	November 2019
Fentanyl and fentanyl analogs in the illicit stimulant supply: Results from U.S. drug seizure data, 2011–2016 Park, Ju Nyeong; Rashidi, Emaan; Foti, Kathryn Drug and Alcohol Dependence, Vol. 218 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2020.108416	journal	January 2021
US regional and demographic differences in prescription opioid and heroin-related overdose hospitalizations Unick, George Jay; Ciccarone, Daniel International Journal of Drug Policy, Vol. 46 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2017.06.003	journal	August 2017
Naloxone for heroin, prescription opioid, and illicitly made fentanyl overdoses: Challenges and innovations responding to a dynamic epidemic Fairbairn, Nadia; Coffin, Phillip O.; Walley, Alexander Y. International Journal of Drug Policy, Vol. 46 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2017.06.005	journal	August 2017
Fentanyl in the US heroin supply: A rapidly changing risk environment Ciccarone, Daniel International Journal of Drug Policy, Vol. 46 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2017.06.010	journal	August 2017
Fentanyl shock: The changing geography of overdose in the United States Zoorob, Michael International Journal of Drug Policy, Vol. 70 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2019.04.010	journal	August 2019
Polysubstance use in the U.S. opioid crisis Compton, Wilson M.; Valentino, Rita J.; DuPont, Robert L. Molecular Psychiatry, Vol. 26, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41380-020-00949-3	journal	November 2020
A dynamic model of the opioid drug epidemic with implications for policy Homer, Jack; Wakeland, Wayne The American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, Vol. 47, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1080/00952990.2020.1755677	journal	June 2020
Modelling the combined impact of interventions in averting deaths during a synthetic‐opioid overdose epidemic Irvine, Michael A.; Kuo, Margot; Buxton, Jane A. Addiction, Vol. 114, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1111/add.14664	journal	June 2019
Changing dynamics of the drug overdose epidemic in the United States from 1979 through 2016 Jalal, Hawre; Buchanich, Jeanine M.; Roberts, Mark S. Science, Vol. 361, Issue 6408 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau1184	journal	September 2018
The opioid crisis: need for systems science research Jalali, Mohammad S.; Botticelli, Michael; Hwang, Rachael C. Health Research Policy and Systems, Vol. 18, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12961-020-00598-6	journal	August 2020
Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models Rahmandad, Hazhir; Sterman, John Management Science, Vol. 54, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1070.0787	journal	May 2008
Enforcement or Treatment? Modeling the Relative Efficacy of Alternatives for Controlling Cocaine Rydell, C. Peter; Caulkins, Jonathan P.; Everingham, Susan S. Operations Research, Vol. 44, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.44.5.687	journal	October 1996
Accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation by Differential Evolution with Self-Adaptive Randomized Subspace Sampling Vrugt, J. A.; ter Braak, C. J. F.; Diks, C. G. H. International Journal of Nonlinear Sciences and Numerical Simulation, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1515/IJNSNS.2009.10.3.273	journal	January 2009
Changes in Opioid-Involved Overdose Deaths by Opioid Type and Presence of Benzodiazepines, Cocaine, and Methamphetamine — 25 States, July–December 2017 to January–June 2018 Gladden, R. Matt; O’Donnell, Julie; Mattson, Christine L. MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 68, Issue 34 https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6834a2	journal	August 2019
Modeling Health Benefits and Harms of Public Policy Responses to the US Opioid Epidemic Pitt, Allison L.; Humphreys, Keith; Brandeau, Margaret L. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 108, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304590	journal	October 2018
Polysubstance Use: A Broader Understanding of Substance Use During the Opioid Crisis Cicero, Theodore J.; Ellis, Matthew S.; Kasper, Zachary A. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 110, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2019.305412	journal	February 2020

Similar Records

Reducing opioid use disorder and overdose deaths in the United States: A dynamic modeling analysis

Journal Article · Thu Jun 23 20:00:00 EDT 2022 · Science Advances · OSTI ID:1905016

Decoding the κ Opioid Receptor (KOR): Advancements in Structural Understanding and Implications for Opioid Analgesic Development

Journal Article · Sun Jun 02 20:00:00 EDT 2024 · Molecules · OSTI ID:2471342

Multiomic Network Analysis Identifies Dysregulated Neurobiological Pathways in Opioid Addiction

Journal Article · Thu Nov 28 19:00:00 EST 2024 · Biological Psychiatry · OSTI ID:2538461

Related Subjects

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
biological sciences
fentanyl
heroin
medical sciences
overdose mortality
prescription opioids
simulation modeling
social sciences

Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development

Citation Formats

References (26)

Similar Records

Related Subjects