Reducing opioid use disorder and overdose deaths in the United States: A dynamic modeling analysis

Stringfellow, Erin J.; Lim, Tse Yang; Humphreys, Keith; DiGennaro, Catherine; Stafford, Celia; Beaulieu, Elizabeth; Homer, Jack; Wakeland, Wayne; Bearnot, Benjamin; McHugh, R. Kathryn; Kelly, John; Glos, Lukas; Eggers, Sara L.; Kazemi, Reza; Jalali, Mohammad S.

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abm8147

Reducing opioid use disorder and overdose deaths in the United States: A dynamic modeling analysis

Journal Article · Fri Jun 24 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Science Advances

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm8147· OSTI ID:1905016

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[5]; ^[4]; ^[6]; ^[7]; ^[8]; McHugh, R. Kathryn ^[4]; ^[8]; ^[9]; Eggers, Sara L. ^[9]; Kazemi, Reza ^[9]; ^[10]

Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States); OSTI
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
Stanford Univ., CA (United States). School of Medicine
Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States)
Harvard Univ., Boston, MA (United States)
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Homer Consulting, Barrytown, NY (United States)
Portland State Univ., OR (United States)
Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA (United States)
U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Silver Spring, MD (United States)
Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States); Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

Opioid overdose deaths remain a major public health crisis. We used a system dynamics simulation model of the U.S. opioid-using population age 12 and older to explore the impacts of 11 strategies on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal opioid overdoses from 2022 to 2032. These strategies spanned opioid misuse and OUD prevention, buprenorphine capacity, recovery support, and overdose harm reduction. By 2032, three strategies saved the most lives: (i) reducing the risk of opioid overdose involving fentanyl use, which may be achieved through fentanyl-focused harm reduction services; (ii) increasing naloxone distribution to people who use opioids; and (iii) recovery support for people in remission, which reduced deaths by reducing OUD. Increasing buprenorphine providers’ capacity to treat more people decreased fatal overdose, but only in the short term. Our analysis provides insight into the kinds of multifaceted approaches needed to save lives.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA); USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0014664

OSTI ID:: 1905016

Journal Information:: Science Advances, Journal Name: Science Advances Journal Issue: 25 Vol. 8; ISSN 2375-2548

Publisher:: AAASCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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