Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

Williams, A. Park; Livneh, Ben; McKinnon, Karen A.; Hansen, Winslow D.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Varuolo-Clarke, Arianna M.; Bjarke, Nels R.; Juang, Caroline S.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2114069119

Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

Journal Article · Tue Feb 22 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2114069119· OSTI ID:1904245

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[5]; Cook, Benjamin I. ^[6]; ^[7]; ^[7]; ^[8]; ^[7]; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. ^[3]

Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); OSTI
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY (United States)
Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH (United States)
Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0022302

OSTI ID:: 1904245

Journal Information:: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Issue: 10 Vol. 119; ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:: National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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