Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests

Hammond, William M.; Williams, A. Park; Abatzoglou, John T.; Adams, Henry D.; Klein, Tamir; López, Rosana; Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Hartmann, Henrik; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29289-2

Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests

Journal Article · Tue Apr 05 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29289-2· OSTI ID:1904244

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; Adams, Henry D. ^[4]; ^[5]; ^[6]; ^[7]; ^[8]; Breshears, David D. ^[9]; ^[10]

Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Agronomy Dept.; OSTI
Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Geography
Univ. of California, Merced, CA (United States). Management of Complex Systems
Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States). School of the Environment
Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot (Israel). Dept. of Plant and Environmental Sciences
Univ. Politecnica de Madrid (Spain). Sistemas y Recuros Naturales
Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Morelia, Michoacán (Mexico). Instituto de Investigaciones sobre los Recursos Naturales
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany). Dept. of Biogeochemical Processes
Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). School of Natural Resources and the Environment
Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States). Dept. of Geography and Environmental Studies

Earth’s forests face grave challenges in the Anthropocene, including hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off events. But despite the vital importance of forests to global ecosystem services, their fates in a warming world remain highly uncertain. Lacking is quantitative determination of commonality in climate anomalies associated with pulses of tree mortality—from published, field-documented mortality events—required for understanding the role of extreme climate events in overall global tree die-off patterns. Here we established a geo-referenced global database documenting climate-induced mortality events spanning all tree-supporting biomes and continents, from 154 peer-reviewed studies since 1970. Our analysis quantifies a global “hotter-drought fingerprint” from these tree-mortality sites—effectively a hotter and drier climate signal for tree mortality—across 675 locations encompassing 1,303 plots. Frequency of these observed mortality-year climate conditions strongly increases nonlinearly under projected warming. Our database also provides initial footing for further community-developed, quantitative, ground-based monitoring of global tree mortality.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0022302

OSTI ID:: 1904244

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 13; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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