Recent California tree mortality portends future increase in drought-driven forest die-off

Madakumbura, Gavin D.; Goulden, Michael L.; Hall, Alex; Fu, Rong; Moritz, Max A.; Koven, Charles D.; Kueppers, Lara M.; Norlen, Carl A.; Randerson, James T.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abc719

Recent California tree mortality portends future increase in drought-driven forest die-off

Journal Article · Fri Dec 18 00:00:00 EST 2020 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc719· OSTI ID:1810072

^[1]; ^[2]; Hall, Alex ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[5]; Norlen, Carl A. ^[6]; ^[2]

Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science
Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States). Bren School of Environmental Science & Management; Univ. of California Cooperative Extension, Modesto, CA (United States). Agricultural and Natural Resources Division
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division; Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy and Resources Group
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science; Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology

Vegetation tolerance to drought depends on an array of site-specific environmental and plant physiological factors. This tolerance is poorly understood for many forest types despite its importance for predicting and managing vegetation stress. We analyzed the relationships between precipitation variability and forest die-off in California's Sierra Nevada and introduce a new measure of drought tolerance that emphasizes plant access to subsurface moisture buffers. We applied this metric to California's severe 2012-2015 drought, and show that it predicted the patterns of tree mortality. We then examined future climate scenarios, and found that the probability of droughts that lead to widespread die-off increases threefold by the end of the 21st century. Our analysis shows that tree mortality in the Sierra Nevada will likely accelerate in the coming decades and that forests in the Central and Northern Sierra Nevada that largely escaped mortality in 2012-2015 are vulnerable to die-off.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1810072

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 12 Vol. 15; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Recent California tree mortality portends future increase in drought-driven forest die-off

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