Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases

Journal Article · Thu Dec 08 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103543· OSTI ID:1902238

Gohlke, David ^[1]; Kelly, Jarod ^[1]; Stephens, Thomas ^[1]; Wu, Xinyi ^[1]; Zhou, Yan ^[1]

---

1. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)

Analysts need to consider the shift of light-duty vehicle sales from cars to light trucks to accurately project fuel consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and consumer spending. Here, we find that energy consumed by on-road light-duty vehicles in the United States can vary by 10% by changing assumptions regarding the sales mix. Scenarios aligned with third-party forecasts, assuming a greater sales proportion of light trucks and fewer cars, yield petroleum consumption 3–8% higher than forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), with greenhouse gas emissions 5–7% higher and a 4–9% increase in consumer spending on vehicles and fuel. This incremental energy consumption can be offset by additional technologies for these vehicles. If most sedans were phased out in favor of larger sport utility vehicles, we find a sales share of 30% battery electric vehicles or 39% hybrid electric vehicles would equal the emissions of the EIA Reference Case.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Transportation Office. Vehicle Technologies Office; USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: AC02-06CH11357
• OSTI ID: 1902238
• Alternate ID(s): OSTI ID: 1909273
• Journal Information: Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment, Vol. 114; ISSN 1361-9209
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS
Fuel efficiency
Electrification
Greenhouse gas emissions
Vehicle size