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Title: Energy Consumption and Cost Reduction of Future Light-Duty Vehicles through Advanced Vehicle Technologies: A Modeling Simulation Study Through 2050

Abstract

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) aim to develop sustainable, affordable and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate vehicle-level fuel savings potential is critical for understanding DOE’s impact. In this work, we simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light duty vehicles. The simulations were performed across: Multiple powertrain configurations (i.e., conventional, power-split, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles), Vehicle classes (i.e., compact car, midsize car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], midsize SUV, and pickup trucks); and Fuels (i.e., gasoline, diesel, hydrogen, and battery electricity). These various technologies are assessed for six different timeframes: laboratory years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. A delay of 5 years is assumed between laboratory year and model year (year technology is introduced into production). Finally, uncertainties are included for both technology performance and cost aspects by considering two cases: Low case, aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on regulations, business as usual; and High case, aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on R&D targets developed throughmore » support by VTO & HFTO. These scenarios are not intended as predictions of future performances. The energy and cost impact of different technologies were estimated using Autonomie (www.autonomie.net), Argonne vehicle system simulation tool. Autonomie is a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool used to assess the energy consumption, performance and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies across classes (from light to heavy duty), powertrains (from conventional to HEVs, FCEVs, PHEVs and BEVs), components and control strategies. Autonomie is packaged with a complete set of vehicle models for a wide range of vehicle classes, powertrain configurations and component technologies, including vehicle level and component level controls. These controls were developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies including analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrains components for different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route based vehicle energy control and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions and estimates the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs for the various types of light duty vehicles. All details of vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Transportation Office. Vehicle Technologies Office
OSTI Identifier:
1647165
Report Number(s):
ANL/ESD-19/10
161542
DOE Contract Number:  
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Citation Formats

Islam, Ehsan Sabri, Moawad, Ayman, Kim, Namdoo, and Rousseau, Aymeric. Energy Consumption and Cost Reduction of Future Light-Duty Vehicles through Advanced Vehicle Technologies: A Modeling Simulation Study Through 2050. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.2172/1647165.
Islam, Ehsan Sabri, Moawad, Ayman, Kim, Namdoo, & Rousseau, Aymeric. Energy Consumption and Cost Reduction of Future Light-Duty Vehicles through Advanced Vehicle Technologies: A Modeling Simulation Study Through 2050. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1647165
Islam, Ehsan Sabri, Moawad, Ayman, Kim, Namdoo, and Rousseau, Aymeric. 2020. "Energy Consumption and Cost Reduction of Future Light-Duty Vehicles through Advanced Vehicle Technologies: A Modeling Simulation Study Through 2050". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1647165. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1647165.
@article{osti_1647165,
title = {Energy Consumption and Cost Reduction of Future Light-Duty Vehicles through Advanced Vehicle Technologies: A Modeling Simulation Study Through 2050},
author = {Islam, Ehsan Sabri and Moawad, Ayman and Kim, Namdoo and Rousseau, Aymeric},
abstractNote = {The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) aim to develop sustainable, affordable and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate vehicle-level fuel savings potential is critical for understanding DOE’s impact. In this work, we simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light duty vehicles. The simulations were performed across: Multiple powertrain configurations (i.e., conventional, power-split, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles), Vehicle classes (i.e., compact car, midsize car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], midsize SUV, and pickup trucks); and Fuels (i.e., gasoline, diesel, hydrogen, and battery electricity). These various technologies are assessed for six different timeframes: laboratory years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. A delay of 5 years is assumed between laboratory year and model year (year technology is introduced into production). Finally, uncertainties are included for both technology performance and cost aspects by considering two cases: Low case, aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on regulations, business as usual; and High case, aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on R&D targets developed through support by VTO & HFTO. These scenarios are not intended as predictions of future performances. The energy and cost impact of different technologies were estimated using Autonomie (www.autonomie.net), Argonne vehicle system simulation tool. Autonomie is a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool used to assess the energy consumption, performance and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies across classes (from light to heavy duty), powertrains (from conventional to HEVs, FCEVs, PHEVs and BEVs), components and control strategies. Autonomie is packaged with a complete set of vehicle models for a wide range of vehicle classes, powertrain configurations and component technologies, including vehicle level and component level controls. These controls were developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies including analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrains components for different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route based vehicle energy control and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions and estimates the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs for the various types of light duty vehicles. All details of vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.},
doi = {10.2172/1647165},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1647165}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {6}
}