Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Mukherjee, Sourav; Mishra, Ashok Kumar; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Kao, Shih-Chieh

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127396

Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Journal Article · Mon Dec 27 00:00:00 EST 2021 · Journal of Hydrology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127396· OSTI ID:1885369

^[1]; Mishra, Ashok Kumar ^[1]; ^[2]; ^[2]

Clemson Univ., SC (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. Here, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. Finally, the results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1885369

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1838572

Journal Information:: Journal of Hydrology, Journal Name: Journal of Hydrology Vol. 605; ISSN 0022-1694

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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