Economics of Crop Rotations With and Without Carinata for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production in the SE United States

Karami, Omid; Dwivedi, Puneet; Lamb, Marshall; Field, John L.

doi:10.3389/fenrg.2022.830227

Economics of Crop Rotations With and Without Carinata for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production in the SE United States

Journal Article · Tue May 10 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Frontiers in Energy Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2022.830227· OSTI ID:1885213

Karami, Omid ^[1]; Dwivedi, Puneet ^[2]; Lamb, Marshall ^[3]; ^[4]

Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States); University of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)
University of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)
US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Dawson, GA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

In 2019, the aviation sector in the United States emitted 255 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, i.e., about five percent of the total domestic CO₂ emissions from the energy sector. The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) derived from carinata (Brassica carinata) could reduce CO₂ emissions of the aviation sector in the United States. Therefore, it is important to estimate changes in farm economics with and without carinata for ascertaining its production feasibility. In this context, the current study first assesses a combination of 12 popular rotations of corn, cotton, peanut, and soybean with winter crops of winter wheat and carinata in South Georgia over 4 years. Then, the net present values (NPVs) of 292 feasible cropping systems over 4 years are calculated. Finally, this study develops a risk model for ascertaining the probability distributions of NPVs for selected cropping systems subject to uncertainties related to prices and yields of summer and winter crops. Carinata in the corn-corn-soybean rotation has the highest NPV ($$\$$$$2,996/ha). The least risky rotation is cotton-cotton-peanut, with a 58.9% probability of a positive NPV. Carinata can decrease the risk level of crop rotations by 8.1%, only if a contract price of $$\$$$$440.9/t is offered. Therefore, a risk averse, risk neutral, or risk acceptant farmer can potentially include carinata in the rotation. Overall, carinata would increase the profitability of farm operations and decrease risk in the SE United States, and therefore, a high likelihood exists, that farmers would adopt it for meeting the growing demand for SAF in the United States.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: US Department of Agriculture; USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1885213

Journal Information:: Frontiers in Energy Research, Journal Name: Frontiers in Energy Research Journal Issue: NA Vol. 10; ISSN 2296-598X

Publisher:: Frontiers Research FoundationCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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