Multimodel ensemble predictions of precipitation using bayesian neural networks

Conference · Fri Apr 01 04:00:00 EDT 2022

OSTI ID:1869077

Fan, Patrick ^[1]; Lu, Dan ^[1]; Rastogi, Deeksha ^[1]

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1. ORNL

Multimodel ensembling improves predictions and considers model uncertainties. In this study, we present a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) ensemble approach for large-scale precipitation predictions based on a set of climate models. BNN infers spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases through the calibration against observations. This ensemble scheme of BNN sufficiently leverages individual model skill for accurate predictions as well as provides interpretability about which models contribute more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times to inform model development. Additionally, BNN accurately quantifies epistemic uncertainty to avoid overconfident projections. We demonstrate BNN’s superior prediction performance to three state-of-the-art ensemble approaches and discuss its interpretability and uncertainty quantification.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1869077
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English