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The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

Journal Article · · IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-solar ensemble prediction system and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Database observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by considering the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The analog ensemble calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes, such as reliability and statistical consistency.
Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
OSTI ID:
1866386
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-5D00-81326; MainId:82099; UUID:267effac-3d81-4fc9-a23e-513dd1061d58; MainAdminID:64440
Journal Information:
IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics, Journal Name: IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 12; ISSN 2156-3381
Publisher:
IEEECopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)
analog ensemble (AnEn)
day-ahead forecast
ensemble forecast
probabilistic forecast
stochastic perturbation
weather research and forecasting (WRF) solar