The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts
In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-Solar Ensemble System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by taking into account the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes such as reliability and statistical consistency.
- Research Organization:
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC36-08GO28308
- OSTI ID:
- 1823593
- Report Number(s):
- NREL/CP-5D00-80399; MainId:42602; UUID:d5b166d8-9018-4d59-ab1f-e6c7a285068c; MainAdminID:63074
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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