The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa

Musselman, Amelia; Thomas, Valerie M.; Nazzal, Dima; Papageorgiou, Dimitri J.; Venkatesh, Aranya; Mallapragada, Dharik S.

doi:10.1007/s12667-021-00433-z

The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa

Journal Article · Tue Apr 13 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Energy Systems

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-021-00433-z· OSTI ID:1864934

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Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ (United States)
Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States). MIT Energy Initiative

Sub-Saharan Africa faces unique barriers to electricity development due to the large proportion of the population that is un-electrified and the prevalence of rural populations. Typically, power system expansion planning models assume all potential consumers can be immediately electrified. This assumption is unrealistic in sub-Saharan Africa, where electrification will likely be a gradual process over a number of years. Furthermore, since a large proportion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa is located in rural regions, the prioritization of these regions may impact how the grid develops. In this research, we develop a multi-period optimization model for power generation and transmission system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast to existing models, which assume full electrification, we consider a variety of electrification policies and analyze the impact of varying the electrification rate and policy on the cost and resources selected for power system expansion. We test our model on a case study of Rwanda. We find that varying the year in which full electrification is reached has a larger impact on cost and generation capacity than varying the electrification policy does, although, when urban and rural regions are considered equitably, more rooftop solar is built. Varying the electrification policies has a larger impact on transmission expansion than on generation expansion and this impact is amplified when starting from zero initial system capacity rather than the original Rwanda system. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis shows that tightening the bounds on CO_2eq emissions has a large impact on the generation portfolio and cost.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1864934

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-812282; 1019037

Journal Information:: Energy Systems, Journal Name: Energy Systems Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 13; ISSN 1868-3967

Publisher:: SpringerCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
Africa
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