Projected changes in the terrestrial and oceanic regulators of climate variability across sub-Saharan Africa

Notaro, Michael; Wang, Fuyao; Yu, Yan; Mao, Jiafu

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05308-0

Projected changes in the terrestrial and oceanic regulators of climate variability across sub-Saharan Africa

Journal Article · Wed Jun 03 04:00:00 EDT 2020 · Climate Dynamics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05308-0· OSTI ID:1632064

^[1]; Wang, Fuyao ^[1]; Yu, Yan ^[2]; ^[3]

Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Nelson Inst. Center for Climatic Research
Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Future changes in the sign and intensity of ocean–land–atmosphere interactions have been insufficiently studied, despite implications for regional climate change projections, extreme event statistics, and seasonal climate predictability. In response to this deficiency, the present study focuses on projected responses to the enhanced greenhouse effect in: (1) the mean state of the atmosphere and land surface; (2) oceanic and terrestrial drivers of sub-Saharan climate variability; and (3) total seasonal climate predictability of sub-Saharan Africa, a region known for its pronounced land–atmosphere coupling. Analysis focuses on output from 23 Earth System Models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five for the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries. It is projected that the greatest warming across sub-Saharan Africa will occur over the Sahel, the monsoon season will become more persistent into late summer and autumn, short rains in the Horn of Africa (HOA) will intensify, and leaf area index will increase across the HOA. Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment, i.e. a multivariate statistical approach, is applied to the model output over sub-Saharan Africa in order to explore the oceanic and terrestrial drivers of regional climate. The models indicate that the study region’s climate variability is dominated by oceanic drivers, with secondary contributions from soil moisture and very modest impacts from vegetation. Overall, the general model consensus of future projections indicates a concerning diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate based on key oceanic and terrestrial predictors and an elevated role of the land surface (associated with soil moisture anomalies) compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1632064

Journal Information:: Climate Dynamics, Journal Name: Climate Dynamics Journal Issue: 5-6 Vol. 55; ISSN 0930-7575

Publisher:: Springer-VerlagCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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New Rainfall Datasets for the Congo Basin and Surrounding Regions Nicholson, S. E.; Klotter, D.; Dezfuli, A. K. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 19, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0015.1	journal	August 2018
GLACE: The Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment. Part I: Overview Koster, Randal D.; Sud, Y. C.; Guo, Zhichang Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 7, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM510.1	journal	August 2006
Rainfall Types in the West African Sudanian Zone during the Summer Monsoon 2002 Fink, A. H.; Vincent, D. G.; Ermert, V. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 134, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3182.1	journal	August 2006
Africa and the global carbon cycle Williams, Christopher A.; Hanan, Niall P.; Neff, Jason C. Carbon Balance and Management, Vol. 2, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1186/1750-0680-2-3	journal	March 2007
DIEL AND SEASONAL PATTERNS OF TROPICAL FOREST CO ₂ EXCHANGE Goulden, Michael L.; Miller, Scott D.; da Rocha, Humberto R. Ecological Applications, Vol. 14, Issue sp4 https://doi.org/10.1890/02-6008	journal	August 2004
A Biometrics Invited Paper. The Analysis and Selection of Variables in Linear Regression Hocking, R. R. Biometrics, Vol. 32, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.2307/2529336	journal	March 1976
Projections of leaf area index in earth system models Mahowald, Natalie; Lo, Fiona; Zheng, Yun Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-211-2016	journal	January 2016
Land–atmosphere interactions in the tropics – a review Gentine, Pierre; Massmann, Adam; Lintner, Benjamin R. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 23, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4171-2019	journal	January 2019
Potential feedback of recent vegetation changes on summer rainfall in the Sahel Lee, Eungul; He, Yaqian; Zhou, Mo Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.2168003.v1	collection	January 2016

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