Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Ou, Yang; Roney, Christopher; Alsalam, Jameel; Calvin, Katherine; Creason, Jared; Edmonds, Jae; Fawcett, Allen A.; Kyle, Page; Narayan, Kanishka; O’Rourke, Patrick; Patel, Pralit; Ragnauth, Shaun; Smith, Steven J.; McJeon, Haewon

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26509-z

Deep mitigation of CO₂ and non-CO₂ greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Journal Article · Fri Oct 29 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26509-z· OSTI ID:1831468

^[1]; ^[2]; Alsalam, Jameel ^[3]; ^[1]; Creason, Jared ^[3]; ^[1]; ^[3]; ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[3]; ^[1]; ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute; Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Washington, DC (United States)
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)

Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO₂ and non-CO₂ GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO₂ emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO₂ and non-CO₂ GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO₂ mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO₂ must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO₂ mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO₂ commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO₂ emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO₂ mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO₂ for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USEPA

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1831468

Report Number(s):: PNNL--SA-158423

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 12; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

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Deep mitigation of CO₂ and non-CO₂ greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures