China’s Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Future Trajectories and Mitigation Options and Potential

Lin, Jiang; Khanna, Nina; Liu, Xu; Teng, Fei; Wang, Xin

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-52653-0

China’s Non-CO₂ Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Future Trajectories and Mitigation Options and Potential

Journal Article · Wed Nov 06 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Scientific Reports

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52653-0· OSTI ID:1580970

Lin, Jiang ^[1]; Khanna, Nina ^[2]; Liu, Xu ^[2]; Teng, Fei ^[3]; Wang, Xin ^[3]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). Inst. of Energy, Environment and Economy

Forecasts indicate that China's non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase rapidly from the 2014 baseline of 2 billion metric tons of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e). Previous studies of the potential for mitigating non-CO₂ GHG emissions in China have focused on timeframes through only 2030, or only on certain sectors or gases. This study uses a novel bottom-up end-use model to estimate mitigation of China's non-CO₂ GHGs under a Mitigation Scenario whereby today's cost-effective and technologically feasible CO₂ and non-CO₂ mitigation measures are deployed through 2050. The study determines that future non-CO₂ GHG emissions are driven largely by industrial and agricultural sources and that China could reduce those emissions by 47% by 2050 while enabling total GHG emissions to peak by 2023. Except for F-gas mitigation, few national or sectoral policies have focused on reducing non-CO₂ GHGs. Policy, market, and other institutional support are needed to realize the cost-effective mitigation potentials identified in this study.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: ClimateWorks Foundation; Hewlett Foundation; MSJ foundation; USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1580970

Journal Information:: Scientific Reports, Journal Name: Scientific Reports Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 9; ISSN 2045-2322

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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