China’s Trajectories beyond Efficiency: CO₂ Implications of Maximizing Electrification and Renewable Resources through 2050

Conference · Mon Sep 23 00:00:00 EDT 2019

OSTI ID:1602856

Khanna, Nina ^[1]; Fridley, David ^[1]; Zhou, Nan ^[1]; Karali, Nihan ^[1]; Zhang, Jingjing ^[1]; Feng, Wei ^[1]

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1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

In support of the Paris Agreement, China committed to peak its CO₂ emissions by 2030 or earlier and to reduce its CO₂ intensity by 60-65% from 2005 levels by 2030. While energy efficiency will continue to play a major role, other significant actions in China beyond efficiency are needed to help limit the average global temperature increase to 1.5°C. This study uses a bottom-up national end-use model to evaluate even lower CO₂ emissions pathways for China beyond cost-effective efficiency by maximizing end-use electrification and adoption of new renewable resources. Unlike most recent modelling studies that only focus on renewable electricity generation with simplified projections for future electricity demand growth, this study evaluates maximum electrification for specific end-use sectors and non-conventional renewable resources on the demand-side. We use scenario analysis to evaluate the potential CO₂ reductions if China is able to rapidly decarbonize its power sector while maximizing electrification across all sectors and the additional opportunity from maximizing biomass and low temperature renewable heat use in industry and solar heating, cooling and water heating technologies use in buildings. While already widely used in some European countries, large-scale adoption of these non-conventional technologies have not yet been considered in China. We find that maximizing non-conventional electric and renewable technologies can help China peak its national CO₂ emissions as early as 2023, with significant additional CO₂ emission reductions through 2050. The greatest additional CO₂ reduction potential beyond efficiency lies in fossil fuel displaced by renewable heat in industry. These results suggest accelerating the utilization of non-conventional electric and renewable technologies present additional CO₂ reduction opportunities for China, but new policies and strategies are needed to change technology choice in the demand sectors.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Science (SC)
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-05CH11231
• OSTI ID: 1602856
• Resource Relation: Conference: ECEEE Summer Study 2017, Presqu’ile Giens, Hyeres, France, 2017
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English