Causal Evaluations for Identifying Differences between Observations and Earth System Models
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
We use a nascent data-driven causal discovery method to find and compare causal relationships in observed data and climate model output. We consider ten different features in the Arctic climate collected from public databases on observational and Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) data. In identifying and analyzing the resulting causal networks, we make meaningful comparisons between observed and climate model interdependencies. This work demonstrates our ability to apply the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm to Arctic climate data, that there are noticeable similarities between observed and simulated Arctic climate dynamics, and that further work is needed to identify specific areas for improvement to better align models with natural observations.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
- DOE Contract Number:
- NA0003525
- OSTI ID:
- 1820528
- Report Number(s):
- SAND2021-11449R; 699421
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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