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Reliability Prediction using FMEA, FTA, and Related Techniques [Slides]

Technical Report ·
DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/1813832· OSTI ID:1813832

Summary: We presented a reliability analysis framework. We made point estimates of reliability using reliability block diagrams, fault trees, success trees and estimates with uncertainty using expert elicitation, Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis. Expert elicitation of failure modes and probabilities is labor-intensive, but critical. Bayesian analysis updates information from expert elicitation with data from reliability and aging tests (aging/compatibility data are needed to estimate lower-bound reliabilities at end of life). Estimation by more than one method helps insure consistency and accuracy.

Research Organization:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
DOE Contract Number:
89233218CNA000001
OSTI ID:
1813832
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-21-28157
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English