Reliability Prediction using FMEA, FTA, and Related Techniques [Slides]
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Summary: We presented a reliability analysis framework. We made point estimates of reliability using reliability block diagrams, fault trees, success trees and estimates with uncertainty using expert elicitation, Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis. Expert elicitation of failure modes and probabilities is labor-intensive, but critical. Bayesian analysis updates information from expert elicitation with data from reliability and aging tests (aging/compatibility data are needed to estimate lower-bound reliabilities at end of life). Estimation by more than one method helps insure consistency and accuracy.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- 89233218CNA000001
- OSTI ID:
- 1813832
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-21-28157
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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