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Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091741· OSTI ID:1804388
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  1. Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling University of Bristol Bristol UK
  2. Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Code 615 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD20771 USA; Geology Department and RENEW Institute University at Buffalo Buffalo NY USA
  3. Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute The University of Tokyo Kashiwa‐shi Japan
  4. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement LSCE‐IPSL CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ Université Paris‐Saclay Gif‐sur‐Yvette France
  5. Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USA; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA
  6. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany
  7. Theoretical Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA
  8. Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks AK99775 USA
  9. British Antarctic Survey Cambridge UK
  10. Institute of Low Temperature Science Hokkaido University Sapporo Japan
  11. Department of Earth System Science University of California Irvine Irvine USA
  12. Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Code 615 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD20771 USA
  13. Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USA
  14. Department of Geography King's College London London UK
  15. Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Code 615 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD20771 USA; Universities Space Research Association Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Studies and Investigations Columbia MD21044 USA
  16. Laboratory of Climatology Department of Geography University of Liége Liége Belgium
  17. Australian Antarctic Division Kingston Tasmania Australia; Australian Antarctic Program Partnership Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania Australia
  18. Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht Utrecht University Utrecht the Netherlands; Laboratoire de Glaciologie Université Libre de Bruxelles Brussels Belgium; NORCE Norwegian Research Centre Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen Norway
  19. Arctic Centre University of Lapland Finland
  20. Antarctic Research Centre Victoria University of Wellington New Zealand
  21. National Center for Atmospheric Science University of Reading Reading UK; Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK
  22. British Antarctic Survey Cambridge UK; Arctic Research Center Hokkaido University Sapporo Japan
  23. Norwegian Polar Institute Tromsø Norway; Department of Physics and Technology The Arctic University University of Tromsø Norway
  24. Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Germany; Department of Geoscience University of Bremen Bremen Germany
  25. Earth System Science and Departement Geografie Vrije Universiteit Brussel Brussels Belgium
  26. Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G‐INP Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement France
  27. Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Germany
  28. Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht Utrecht University Utrecht the Netherlands
  29. Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
  30. Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Lexington Massachusetts USA
  31. GNS Science Lower Hutt New Zealand
  32. Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Code 615 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD20771 USA; School of Environmental Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UK
  33. Laboratoire de Glaciologie Université Libre de Bruxelles Brussels Belgium
  34. Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling University of Leeds LS2 9JT UK
  35. Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego La Jolla CA USA
  36. National Center for Atmospheric Science University of Reading Reading UK
  37. Dept of Physics and Physical Oceanography Memorial University of Newfoundland Canada
  38. Department of Geography Pennsylvania State University University Park PA USA
  39. Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht Utrecht University Utrecht the Netherlands; Geosciences, Physical Geography Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
  40. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany; Department of Physics and Astronomy University of Potsdam Potsdam Germany
  41. Australian Antarctic Program Partnership Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania Australia
  42. CSC‐IT Center for Science Espoo Finland
+ Show Author Affiliations
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
Research Organization:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
European Unions Horizon 2020; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR). Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC)
Contributing Organization:
ISMIP6 Collaboration
Grant/Contract Number:
89233218CNA000001
OSTI ID:
1804388
Report Number(s):
LA-UR--20-20046
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 16 Vol. 48; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Antarctica
Greenland
earth sciences
ice sheet
sea level