CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

Barthel, Alice; Agosta, Cécile; Little, Christopher M.; Hattermann, Tore; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Seroussi, Helene; Straneo, Fiammetta; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

doi:10.5194/tc-14-855-2020

CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

Journal Article · Fri Mar 06 00:00:00 EST 2020 · The Cryosphere (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020· OSTI ID:1603382

; ; Little, Christopher M.; Hattermann, Tore; ; ; Nowicki, Sophie; ; ; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.

View Journal Article

Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR); Fondation Albert II de Monaco; National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA); National Science Foundation (NSF); Netherlands Earth System Science Centre; North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC); Norwegian Research Council; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1603382

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1634959

Report Number(s):: LA-UR--19-26914

Journal Information:: The Cryosphere (Online), Journal Name: The Cryosphere (Online) Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 14; ISSN 1994-0424

Publisher:: Copernicus Publications, EGUCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Germany

Language:: English

References (65)

Breakup of the Larsen B Ice Shelf triggered by chain reaction drainage of supraglacial lakes: LARSEN B CHAIN REACTION LAKE DRAINAGE Banwell, Alison F.; MacAyeal, Douglas R.; Sergienko, Olga V. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057694	journal	November 2013
Satellite-based estimates of Antarctic surface meltwater fluxes: SATELLITE-BASED ANTARCTIC MELT FLUXES Trusel, Luke D.; Frey, Karen E.; Das, Sarah B. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058138	journal	December 2013
Sustained increase in ice discharge from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, from 1973 to 2013 Mouginot, J.; Rignot, E.; Scheuchl, B. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059069	journal	March 2014
EN4: Quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates: THE EN4 DATA SET Good, Simon A.; Martin, Matthew J.; Rayner, Nick A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 118, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009067	journal	December 2013
The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation: SEA ICE BIASES AND ANTARCTIC PROJECTIONS Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Stephenson, David B.; Turner, John Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067055	journal	December 2015
BedMachine v3: Complete Bed Topography and Ocean Bathymetry Mapping of Greenland From Multibeam Echo Sounding Combined With Mass Conservation Morlighem, M.; Williams, C. N.; Rignot, E. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074954	journal	November 2017
Circum-Antarctic Shoreward Heat Transport Derived From an Eddy- and Tide-Resolving Simulation Stewart, Andrew L.; Klocker, Andreas; Menemenlis, Dimitris Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075677	journal	January 2018
Oceanographic Controls on the Variability of Ice‐Shelf Basal Melting and Circulation of Glacial Meltwater in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica Kimura, Satoshi; Jenkins, Adrian; Regan, Heather Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 122, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012926	journal	December 2017
Metrics for the Evaluation of the Southern Ocean in Coupled Climate Models and Earth System Models Russell, Joellen L.; Kamenkovich, Igor; Bitz, Cecilia Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 123, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013461	journal	May 2018
Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there: CLIMATE MODEL GENEALOGY Knutti, Reto; Masson, David; Gettelman, Andrew Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50256	journal	March 2013
Assessment of Southern Ocean water mass circulation and characteristics in CMIP5 models: Historical bias and forcing response: SOUTHERN OCEAN WATER MASSES IN CMIP5 Sallée, J. -B.; Shuckburgh, E.; Bruneau, N. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 118, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20135	journal	April 2013
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system Dee, D. P.; Uppala, S. M.; Simmons, A. J. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 656 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828	journal	April 2011
Evaluation of current and projected Antarctic precipitation in CMIP5 models Palerme, Cyril; Genthon, Christophe; Claud, Chantal Climate Dynamics, Vol. 48, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3071-1	journal	March 2016
Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models Holland, Marika M.; Landrum, Laura; Kostov, Yavor Climate Dynamics, Vol. 49, Issue 5-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3424-9	journal	October 2016
Impact of surface temperature biases on climate change projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone Dutheil, Cyril; Bador, M.; Lengaigne, M. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 5-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04692-6	journal	March 2019
Developments in Simulating and Parameterizing Interactions Between the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Ice Sheet Asay-Davis, Xylar S.; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Nakayama, Yoshihiro Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 3, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0071-0	journal	October 2017
Antarctica-Regional Climate and Surface Mass Budget Favier, Vincent; Krinner, Gerhard; Amory, Charles Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 3, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0072-z	journal	October 2017
An assessment of recent global atmospheric reanalyses for Antarctic near surface air temperature Huai, Baojuan; Wang, Yetang; Ding, Minghu Atmospheric Research, Vol. 226 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.029	journal	September 2019
CMIP5 temperature biases and 21st century warming around the Antarctic coast Little, Christopher M.; Urban, Nathan M. Annals of Glaciology, Vol. 57, Issue 73 https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2016.25	journal	July 2016
Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B ice shelf Rignot, E. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 31, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020697	journal	January 2004
Strong surface melting preceded collapse of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelf: MELTING ON ANTARCTIC ICE SHELVES van den Broeke, Michiel Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023247	journal	June 2005
Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE Velicogna, I. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040222	journal	January 2009
Representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the CMIP5 climate models and future changes under warming scenarios: ACC REPRESENTATION IN CMIP5 Meijers, A. J. S.; Shuckburgh, E.; Bruneau, N. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 117, Issue C12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC008412	journal	December 2012
Surface Meltwater Impounded by Seasonal Englacial Storage in West Greenland Kendrick, A. K.; Schroeder, D. M.; Chu, W. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079787	journal	October 2018
The Antarctic Slope Current in a Changing Climate Thompson, Andrew F.; Stewart, Andrew L.; Spence, Paul Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 56, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000624	journal	December 2018
Stability of the Larsen B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene epoch Domack, Eugene; Duran, Diana; Leventer, Amy Nature, Vol. 436, Issue 7051 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03908	journal	August 2005
Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current Hellmer, Hartmut H.; Kauker, Frank; Timmermann, Ralph Nature, Vol. 485, Issue 7397 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11064	journal	May 2012
Direct observations of evolving subglacial drainage beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet Andrews, Lauren C.; Catania, Ginny A.; Hoffman, Matthew J. Nature, Vol. 514, Issue 7520 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13796	journal	October 2014
Sustained mass loss of the northeast Greenland ice sheet triggered by regional warming Khan, Shfaqat A.; Kjær, Kurt H.; Bevis, Michael Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2161	journal	March 2014
Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming Frieler, Katja; Clark, Peter U.; He, Feng Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2574	journal	March 2015
Different magnitudes of projected subsurface ocean warming around Greenland and Antarctica Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Griffies, Stephen M. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1189	journal	July 2011
Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios Trusel, Luke D.; Frey, Karen E.; Das, Sarah B. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2563	journal	October 2015
Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017 team, The IMBIE Nature, Vol. 558, Issue 7709, p. 219-222 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y	journal	June 2018
Nonlinear rise in Greenland runoff in response to post-industrial Arctic warming Trusel, Luke D.; Das, Sarah B.; Osman, Matthew B. Nature, Vol. 564, Issue 7734 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0752-4	journal	December 2018
Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change Krinner, Gerhard; Flanner, Mark G. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 38 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1807912115	journal	September 2018
Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018 Mouginot, Jérémie; Rignot, Eric; Bjørk, Anders A. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1904242116	journal	April 2019
21st century projections of surface mass balance changes for major drainage systems of the Greenland ice sheet Tedesco, M.; Fettweis, X. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 7, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045405	journal	November 2012
Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters Schmidtko, Sunke; Heywood, Karen J.; Thompson, Andrew F. Science, Vol. 346, Issue 6214 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1256117	journal	December 2014
Observed rapid bedrock uplift in Amundsen Sea Embayment promotes ice-sheet stability Barletta, Valentina R.; Bevis, Michael; Smith, Benjamin E. Science, Vol. 360, Issue 6395 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao1447	journal	June 2018
The Dynamics of Greenland's Glacial Fjords and Their Role in Climate Straneo, Fiamma; Cenedese, Claudia Annual Review of Marine Science, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010213-135133	journal	January 2015
An Assessment of Precipitation Changes over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean since 1989 in Contemporary Global Reanalyses Bromwich, David H.; Nicolas, Julien P.; Monaghan, Andrew J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4074.1	journal	August 2011
The Reliability of Antarctic Tropospheric Pressure and Temperature in the Latest Global Reanalyses Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Marshall, Gareth J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00685.1	journal	October 2012
Oceanic Forcing of Antarctic Climate Change: A Study Using a Stretched-Grid Atmospheric General Circulation Model Krinner, Gerhard; Largeron, Chloé; Ménégoz, Martin Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00367.1	journal	August 2014
Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Knutti, Reto; Caldwell, Peter Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00361.1	journal	July 2015
A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Knutti, Reto; Caldwell, Peter Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00362.1	journal	July 2015
CMIP5 Diversity in Southern Westerly Jet Projections Related to Historical Sea Ice Area: Strong Link to Strengthening and Weak Link to Shift Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Hyder, Patrick; Holmes, Caroline R. Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0320.1	journal	January 2018
Greenland ice sheet mass balance: distribution of increased mass loss with climate warming; 2003–07 versus 1992–2002 Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Brenner, Anita C. Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 57, Issue 201 https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311795306682	journal	January 2011
Characteristics of ocean waters reaching Greenland's glaciers Straneo, Fiammetta; Sutherland, David A.; Holland, David Annals of Glaciology, Vol. 53, Issue 60 https://doi.org/10.3189/2012AoG60A059	journal	January 2012
Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project) Bindschadler, Robert A.; Nowicki, Sophie; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 59, Issue 214 https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J125	journal	January 2013
Grounding-line migration in plan-view marine ice-sheet models: results of the ice2sea MISMIP3d intercomparison Pattyn, Frank; Perichon, Laura; Durand, Gaël Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 59, Issue 215 https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J129	journal	January 2013
Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models Levermann, A.; Winkelmann, R.; Nowicki, S. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014	journal	January 2014
Intercomparison of Antarctic ice-shelf, ocean, and sea-ice interactions simulated by MetROMS-iceshelf and FESOM 1.4 Naughten, Kaitlin A.; Meissner, Katrin J.; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1257-2018	journal	January 2018
Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6 Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Anthony; Larour, Eric Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016	journal	January 2016
Response to Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf cavity warming in a coupled ocean–ice sheet model – Part 1: The ocean perspective Timmermann, Ralph; Goeller, Sebastian Ocean Science, Vol. 13, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-765-2017	journal	January 2017
Reconstructions of the 1900–2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model Fettweis, Xavier; Box, Jason E.; Agosta, Cécile The Cryosphere, Vol. 11, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017	journal	January 2017
Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong The Cryosphere, Vol. 11, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2595-2017	journal	January 2017
Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016) van Wessem, Jan Melchior; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice P. Y. The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018	journal	January 2018
Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 1: Greenland (1958–2016) Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; van Wessem, J. Melchior The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018	journal	January 2018
Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting Slater, Donald A.; Straneo, Fiamma; Felikson, Denis The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019	journal	January 2019
Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes Agosta, Cécile; Amory, Charles; Kittel, Christoph The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019	journal	January 2019
Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet energy balance driving the surface melt Franco, B.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M. The Cryosphere, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1-2013	journal	January 2013
Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR Fettweis, X.; Franco, B.; Tedesco, M. The Cryosphere, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013	journal	January 2013
Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to perturbations in sea surface temperature and sea ice cover: a study with the regional climate model MAR Noël, B.; Fettweis, X.; van de Berg, W. J. The Cryosphere, Vol. 8, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014	journal	January 2014
Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance Agosta, C.; Fettweis, X.; Datta, R. The Cryosphere, Vol. 9, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015	journal	January 2015
Modeling Ice Shelf/Ocean Interaction in Antarctica: A Review Dinniman, Michael; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin Oceanography, Vol. 29, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2016.106	journal	December 2016

Similar Records

Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models

Journal Article · Wed Jul 22 20:00:00 EDT 2020 · The Cryosphere (Online) · OSTI ID:1671090

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
climate
earth sciences
future sea level rise
model evaluation
multi-model

CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

Citation Formats

References (65)

Similar Records

Related Subjects