Enhanced Predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the ENSO Longitude Index

Balaguru, Karthik; Patricola, Christina M.; Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, L. Ruby; Dong, Lu

doi:10.1029/2020gl088849

Enhanced Predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the ENSO Longitude Index

Journal Article · Mon Aug 17 04:00:00 EDT 2020 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl088849· OSTI ID:1782166

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

While El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences eastern North Pacific (ENP) tropical cyclones (TCs) through a variety of atmospheric processes when examined concurrently, ocean pathways dominate at longer lead times. Furthermore, the eastward displacement of the warm pool during an El Niño, which carries warm water into the ENP basin, is the primary oceanic mechanism. Despite this, the question of whether an accurate knowledge of preseason ENSO conditions enhances predictability of ENP TCs has not been addressed specifically. In this study, we show that relative to traditional indices of ENSO, the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI) captures changes in the location of deep convection and associated thermocline processes more accurately. Consequently, the ELI explains more variability in the upper-ocean heat content, and thus TC activity, at lead times of several months in the ENP basin. These results motivate the need to further explore the predictability of ENP TCs associated with ENSO.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1782166

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1650202
OSTI ID: 1668782

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 16 Vol. 47; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (58)

Dynamic Potential Intensity: An improved representation of the ocean's impact on tropical cyclones Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064822	journal	August 2015
Different controls of tropical cyclone activity in the Eastern Pacific for two types of El Niño: HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN THE EAST PACIFIC Boucharel, Julien; Jin, Fei-Fei; Lin, I. I. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067728	journal	February 2016
Prolonged El Niño conditions in 2014-2015 and the rapid intensification of Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific: EL NIÑO AND HURRICANE PATRICIA Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070274	journal	October 2016
The record-breaking 2015 hurricane season in the eastern North Pacific: An analysis of environmental conditions: Record-Breaking NE Pac 2015 TC Season Collins, Jennifer M.; Klotzbach, Philip J.; Maue, Ryan N. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070597	journal	September 2016
El Niño/Southern Oscillation behaviour since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext) Wolter, Klaus; Timlin, Michael S. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 31, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2336	journal	April 2011
Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4 Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso; Mogensen, Kristian; Weaver, Anthony T. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 139, Issue 674 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2063	journal	December 2012
ENSO variability and the eastern tropical Pacific: A review Wang, Chunzai; Fiedler, Paul C. Progress in Oceanography, Vol. 69, Issue 2-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2006.03.004	journal	May 2006
Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales Camargo, Suzana J.; Camp, Joanne; Elsberry, Russell L. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.10.004	journal	September 2019
Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control Coffman, Makena; Noy, Ilan Environment and Development Economics, Vol. 17, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X11000350	journal	November 2011
Equatorial waves and the 1997-98 El Niño McPhaden, Michael J.; Yu, Xuri Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 26, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL004901	journal	October 1999
Local environmental conditions related to seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the northeast Pacific Basin Collins, J. M.; Mason, I. M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 27, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL011614	journal	December 2000
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century Rayner, N. A. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, Issue D14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670	journal	January 2003
Clustering of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks: ENSO and MJO effects: EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS Camargo, Suzana J.; Robertson, Andrew W.; Barnston, Anthony G. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, Vol. 9, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GC001861	journal	June 2008
Diversity of ENSO Events Unified by Convective Threshold Sea Surface Temperature: A Nonlinear ENSO Index Williams, Ian N.; Patricola, Christina M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079203	journal	September 2018
The Record‐Setting 2018 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season Wood, Kimberly M.; Klotzbach, Philip J.; Collins, Jennifer M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083657	journal	August 2019
Water displacements in the Pacific and the genesis of El Nino cycles Wyrtki, Klaus Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 90, Issue C4 https://doi.org/10.1029/JC090iC04p07129	journal	January 1985
Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity Emanuel, Kerry A. Nature, Vol. 401, Issue 6754 https://doi.org/10.1038/44326	journal	October 1999
Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years Emanuel, Kerry Nature, Vol. 436, Issue 7051 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906	journal	July 2005
Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones intensified by El Niño delivery of subsurface ocean heat Jin, F. -F.; Boucharel, J.; Lin, I. -I. Nature, Vol. 516, Issue 7529 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13958	journal	December 2014
Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming Cai, Wenju; Borlace, Simon; Lengaigne, Matthieu Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2100	journal	January 2014
Degree of simulated suppression of Atlantic tropical cyclones modulated by flavour of El Niño Patricola, Christina M.; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2624	journal	December 2015
Enhancing Cell Proliferation and Osteogenic Differentiation of MC3T3-E1 Pre-osteoblasts by BMP-2 Delivery in Graphene Oxide-Incorporated PLGA/HA Biodegradable Microcarriers Fu, Chuan; Yang, Xiaoyu; Tan, Shulian Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-12935-x	journal	October 2017
El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming Latif, M.; Keenlyside, N. S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 49 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0710860105	journal	December 2008
The 2013 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season: Mexico Takes the Brunt Kimberlain, Todd B. Weatherwise, Vol. 67, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.2014.899802	journal	April 2014
Oceanic control of Northeast Pacific hurricane activity at interannual timescales Balaguru, Karthik; Ruby Leung, L.; Yoon, Jin-ho Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044009	journal	October 2013
Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, the Pacific Cold Tongue, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Jin, F. - F. Science, Vol. 274, Issue 5284 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.274.5284.76	journal	October 1996
Genesis and Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino McPhaden, M. J. Science, Vol. 283, Issue 5404 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.283.5404.950	journal	February 1999
Large-Scale Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin Kaplan, John; DeMaria, Mark Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 18, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1093:LCORIT>2.0.CO;2	journal	December 2003
Oceanic Equatorial Waves and the 1991–93 El Niño Kessler, William S.; McPhaden, Michael J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 8, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1757:OEWATE>2.0.CO;2	journal	July 1995
The Relationship between Sea Surface Temperatures and Maximum Intensities of Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean Whitney, Luke D.; Hobgood, Jay S. Journal of Climate, Vol. 10, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2921:TRBSST>2.0.CO;2	journal	November 1997
Modulation of Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes by the Madden–Julian Oscillation Maloney, Eric D.; Hartmann, Dennis L. Journal of Climate, Vol. 13, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1451:MOENPH>2.0.CO;2	journal	May 2000
Observations of Warm Water Volume Changes in the Equatorial Pacific and Their Relationship to El Niño and La Niña Meinen, Christopher S.; McPhaden, Michael J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 13, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3551:OOWWVC>2.0.CO;2	journal	October 2000
The Effect of Vertical Shear on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change DeMaria, Mark Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 53, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<2076:TEOVSO>2.0.CO;2	journal	July 1996
An Equatorial Ocean Recharge Paradigm for ENSO. Part I: Conceptual Model Jin, Fei-Fei Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 54, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<0811:AEORPF>2.0.CO;2	journal	April 1997
The Definition of El Niño Trenberth, Kevin E. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2	journal	December 1997
Climate Assessment for 1999 Bell, Gerald D.; Halpert, Michael S.; Schnell, Russell C. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)81[s1:CAF]2.0.CO;2	journal	June 2000
Global view of the Origin of Tropical Disturbances and Storms Gray, William M. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 96, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1968)096<0669:GVOTOO>2.0.CO;2	journal	October 1968
A Study of the Southern Oscillation and Walker Circulation Phenomenon Julian, Paul R.; Chervin, Robert M. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 106, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<1433:ASOTSO>2.0.CO;2	journal	October 1978
The Southern Oscillation. Part VII: Meteorological Anomalies over the Indian and Pacific Sectors Associated with the Extremes of the Oscillation Kiladis, George N.; van Loon, Harry Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 116, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<0120:TSOPVM>2.0.CO;2	journal	January 1988
On the Computation of Pseudoadiabatic Entropy and Equivalent Potential Temperature Bryan, George H. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 136, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2593.1	journal	December 2008
Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center Rappaport, Edward N.; Franklin, James L.; Avila, Lixion A. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 24, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008WAF2222128.1	journal	April 2009
The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest United States Corbosiero, Kristen L.; Dickinson, Michael J.; Bosart, Lance F. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 137, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2768.1	journal	August 2009
Oceanic Heat Content Variability in the Eastern Pacific Ocean for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Shay, Lynn K.; Brewster, Jodi K. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 138, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3189.1	journal	June 2010
The Influence of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Remnants on the Southwestern United States Ritchie, Elizabeth A.; Wood, Kimberly M.; Gutzler, David S. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 139, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3389.1	journal	January 2011
NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2) Kanamitsu, Masao; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Woollen, Jack Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 83, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631	journal	November 2002
A Ventilation Index for Tropical Cyclones Tang, Brian; Emanuel, Kerry Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00165.1	journal	December 2012
Rewriting the Tropical Record Books: The Extraordinary Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015) Rogers, Robert F.; Aberson, Sim; Bell, Michael M. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 98, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0039.1	journal	October 2017
Fire and Rain: The Legacy of Hurricane Lane in Hawaiʻi Nugent, Alison D.; Longman, Ryan J.; Trauernicht, Clay Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 101, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0104.1	journal	June 2020
North-Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones: Impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation Klotzbach, Philip J.; Blake, Eric S. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00809.1	journal	September 2013
The Influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Eastern North Pacific Basin Jien, Jerry Y.; Gough, William A.; Butler, Ken Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00248.1	journal	March 2015
On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Caron, Louis-Philippe; Boudreault, Mathieu; Camargo, Suzana J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0377.1	journal	December 2015
Influence of Oceanic Intraseasonal Kelvin Waves on Eastern Pacific Hurricane Activity Boucharel, Julien; Jin, Fei-Fei; England, Matthew H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0112.1	journal	October 2016
Use of a Genesis Potential Index to Diagnose ENSO Effects on Tropical Cyclone Genesis Camargo, Suzana J.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Sobel, Adam H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4282.1	journal	October 2007
Atlantic Hurricane Database Uncertainty and Presentation of a New Database Format Landsea, Christopher W.; Franklin, James L. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 141, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00254.1	journal	October 2013
The Effects of Gap-Wind-Induced Vorticity, the Monsoon Trough, and the ITCZ on East Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis Holbach, Heather M.; Bourassa, Mark A. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 142, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00218.1	journal	March 2014
Evaluating Environmental Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Predictability Utilizing Statistical Models Kaplan, John; Rozoff, Christopher M.; DeMaria, Mark Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 30, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0032.1	journal	October 2015
An Operational Rapid Intensification Prediction Aid for the Western North Pacific Knaff, John A.; Sampson, Charles R.; Musgrave, Kate D. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 33, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0012.1	journal	May 2018
A Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Prediction Aid for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s Areas of Responsibility Knaff, John A.; Sampson, Charles R.; Strahl, Brian R. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 35, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0228.1	journal	June 2020

Similar Records

Enhanced predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical cyclone activity using the ENSO Longitude Index

Journal Article · Fri Aug 28 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:1668782

Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Winds

Journal Article · Wed May 10 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Scientific Reports · OSTI ID:1624291

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ENSO
climate variability
ocean heat content
tropical cyclones

Enhanced Predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the ENSO Longitude Index

Citation Formats

References (58)

Similar Records

Related Subjects