Enhanced predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical cyclone activity using the ENSO Longitude Index

Journal Article · Fri Aug 28 04:00:00 EDT 2020 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088849· OSTI ID:1668782

Balaguru, Karthik ^[1]; Patricola, Christina ^[2]; Hagos, Samson M. ^[1]; Leung, Lai-Yung ^[1]; Dong, Lu ^[1]

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1. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
2. LBL

Past studies have indicated that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a major role in the interannual variability of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. The primary mechanism being the eastward displacement of the warm pool during an El Nino, which carries warm water into that basin thereby creating favorable oceanic conditions. Despite this, the question of whether an accurate knowledge of ENSO enhances seasonal predictabiity of Eastern Pacific hurricanes has not been addressed specifically. In this study, we show that unlike traditional indices of ENSO, the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI) is able to predict Eastern Pacific hurricane activity at significant lead times. By capturing changes in the location of deep convection and associated thermocline processes more accurately, ELI explains the most variability in the upper-ocean heat content in the main development region of the Eastern Pacific basin compared to other ENSO indices. These results have substantial implications for operational seasonal forecasts of Eastern Pacific hurricanes.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1668782
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-153159
• Journal Information: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 16 Vol. 47
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English