Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon

Beiter, Philipp; Cooperman, Aubryn; Lantz, Eric; Stehly, Tyler; Shields, Matt; Wiser, Ryan; Telsnig, Thomas; Kitzing, Lena; Berkhout, Volker; Kikuchi, Yuka

doi:10.1002/wene.398

Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon

Journal Article · Wed Mar 31 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Energy and Environment

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/wene.398· OSTI ID:1779796

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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden Colorado USA
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley California USA
European Commission Joint Research Centre Petten The Netherlands
Technical University of Denmark Lyngby Denmark
Fraunhofer IEE Kassel Germany
The University of Tokyo Bunkyo City Tokyo Japan

The costs of wind power have declined to levels on par with or below those of conventional sources in many parts of the world. Wind power has become one of the fastest-growing sources of new electricity generation. We take stock of wind power cost evolution over the past 20 years, review methodologies commonly used for cost assessment, discuss the potential for continued cost reduction, and identify anticipated cost and value drivers. Our scope includes both onshore and offshore wind technologies. We draw from a vast body of literature on these topics to highlight key trends, approaches, and limitations. Furthermore, we discuss strategies for wind power assets to enhance their marginal economic value to the broader power system and consumers. We identify a myriad of factors that are expected to influence the future cost and value of wind power, including siting, project scale, turbine size, operational synergies, commodity prices, advancements in turbine technologies, enhanced management of the wind resource, and novel control technologies that provide value for the electricity grid. Because the common methods for forecasting future costs each have their own strengths and weaknesses, we find the best insights are elicited from a combination of methods. Overall, researchers and analysts anticipate further sizable cost reductions for onshore and offshore wind. Midrange forecasts for levelized cost of energy in 2050 are generally between $20 and $30/MWh for onshore wind and $40 and $60/MWh for offshore wind, a reduction to approximately half of today's levels. Optimistic forecasts anticipate these levels as early as 2030.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind Energy Technologies Office (EE-4W)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1779796

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1817919

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA--5000-78631; MainId:32548; UUID:d60a94c7-2c8c-4630-a811-8055cd2ead07; MainAdminID:19768

Journal Information:: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Energy and Environment, Journal Name: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Energy and Environment Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 10; ISSN 2041-8396

Publisher:: WileyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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