Double-ITCZ as an Emergent Constraint for Future Precipitation Over Mediterranean Climate Regions in the North Hemisphere

Dong, Lu; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Lu, Jian; Song, Fengfei

doi:10.1029/2020gl091569

Double-ITCZ as an Emergent Constraint for Future Precipitation Over Mediterranean Climate Regions in the North Hemisphere

Journal Article · Tue Jan 12 00:00:00 UTC 2021 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091569· OSTI ID:1773868

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Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

The semi-arid Mediterranean climate regions feature wet winter and dry summer, distinct from most other regions on Earth. In response to warming, climate models project increased precipitation in US Southwest (USSW) and decreased in Mediterranean basin (MED) during winter, but with marked uncertainty. Using a multi-model ensemble, we found that models with excessive double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) biases tend to exaggerate the precipitation increase over USSW and understate the precipitation decrease over MED in the future. In this work, these relationships are attributed to the atmospheric circulation changes driven by the increased tropical rainfall and the weaker slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under warming, respectively. Constraining the present-day double-ITCZ with observations, the projected wetting over USSW is reduced to no change and the drying over MED is intensified by 32%. A relative reduction in future precipitation has profound societal and economic implications for these regions already under severe water stress.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1773868

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--158966

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 48; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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