What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Couldrey, Matthew P.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Boeira Dias, Fabio; Dobrohotoff, Peter; Domingues, Catia M.; Garuba, Oluwayemi; Griffies, Stephen M.; Haak, Helmuth; Hu, Aixue; Ishii, Masayoshi; Jungclaus, Johann; Köhl, Armin; Marsland, Simon J.; Ojha, Sayantani; Saenko, Oleg A.; Savita, Abhishek; Shao, Andrew; Stammer, Detlef; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Todd, Alexander; Zanna, Laure

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05471-4

Title: What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Journal Article · Tue Oct 27 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Climate Dynamics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05471-4· OSTI ID:1690287

;

; Ojha, Sayantani;

;

AbstractSea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); UK Natural Environment Research Council; Australian Research Council (ARC); MEXT Japan

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830; NE/R000727/1; FT130101532; DP160103130; NE/P019293/1; JPMXD0717935457; JPMXD0717935561; 89243018SSC000007

OSTI ID:: 1690287

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1770158; OSTI ID: 1827728

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-154040; PII: 5471

Journal Information:: Climate Dynamics, Journal Name: Climate Dynamics; ISSN 0930-7575

Publisher:: Springer-VerlagCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Title: What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

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