Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change

Couldrey, Matthew P.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Dong, Xiao; Garuba, Oluwayemi; Haak, Helmuth; Hu, Aixue; Hurlin, William J.; Jin, Jiangbo; Jungclaus, Johann; Köhl, Armin; Liu, Hailong; Ojha, Sayantani; Saenko, Oleg A.; Savita, Abhishek; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Yu, Zipeng; Zanna, Laure

doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06386-y

Title: Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change

Journal Article · Tue Aug 02 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Climate Dynamics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06386-y· OSTI ID:1879246

; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Dong, Xiao; Garuba, Oluwayemi; Haak, Helmuth; Hu, Aixue; Hurlin, William J.; Jin, Jiangbo; Jungclaus, Johann; Köhl, Armin; Liu, Hailong; Ojha, Sayantani; Saenko, Oleg A.; Savita, Abhishek; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Yu, Zipeng; Zanna, Laure

Abstract The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content ( $$$$\Delta$$$$ $Δ$ OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level ( $$$$\Delta \zeta$$$$ $Δ ζ$ ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling $$$$\hbox {CO}_{{2}}$$$$ ${CO}_{2}$ . Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of $$$$\Delta$$$$ $Δ$ OHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects $$$$\Delta \zeta$$$$ $Δ ζ$ in the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean $$$$\Delta \zeta$$$$ $Δ ζ$ and $$$$\Delta$$$$ $Δ$ OHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs.

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Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); German Research Foundation (DFG); Australian Research Council (ARC); Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOU-GOU)

Grant/Contract Number:: HiLAT-RASM; SC0022070; NE/R000727/1; 41991282; 41931183; SPP 1889; CE170100023; DP160103130; JPMXD0717935457; NE/P019218/1; GEO 2048576

OSTI ID:: 1879246

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1968859

Journal Information:: Climate Dynamics, Journal Name: Climate Dynamics Vol. 60 Journal Issue: 7-8; ISSN 0930-7575

Publisher:: Springer Science + Business MediaCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Title: Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change

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