A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices

Kaufman, Noah; Barron, Alexander R.; Krawczyk, Wojciech; Marsters, Peter; McJeon, Haewon

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0880-3

A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices

Journal Article · Mon Aug 17 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Nature Climate Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0880-3· OSTI ID:1762485

^[1]; ^[2]; Krawczyk, Wojciech ^[3]; Marsters, Peter ^[1]; McJeon, Haewon ^[3]

Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
Smith College, Northampton, MA (United States)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO₂ price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO₂ prices. In this study we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO₂ prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO₂ emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO₂ prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO₂ prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO₂ emission target, prices are US $$ \$$34$ to US $$ \$$64$ per metric ton in 2025 and US $$ \$$77$ to US $$ \$$124$ in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1762485

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--151884

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 10; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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