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Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Journal Article · · Energy and Climate Change
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  1. Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  3. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States)
  4. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)
  5. RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
  6. Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
  7. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  8. North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States)
  9. Energy Innovation, San Francisco, CA (United States)
  10. Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
  11. US Department of Energy (USDOE), Washington, DC (United States)
  12. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  13. OnLocation, Inc., Vienna, VA (United States)
  14. Southern Company Services, Birmingham, AL (United States)
  15. US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Washington, DC (United States)
  16. Banco de México, Mérida (Mexico); RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce (Italy)
  17. Simon Fraser Univ., Burnaby, BC (Canada)
  18. Environment and Climate Change Canada, Gatineau, QC (Canada)
  19. ESMIA Consultants, Montreal, QC (Canada)
  20. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.
Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE); USEPA
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308; EI0003267
OSTI ID:
2570696
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 2566942
OSTI ID: 2573864
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA--6A40-91878; PNNL-SA--207064
Journal Information:
Energy and Climate Change, Journal Name: Energy and Climate Change Vol. 6; ISSN 2666-2787
Publisher:
ElsevierCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Decarbonization
Inflation Reduction Act
Net-Zero Emissions
climate policy
decarbonization
inflation reduction act
model intercomparioson
model intercomparison
net-zero emissions