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Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP)

Journal Article · · Journal of Glaciology
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.67· OSTI ID:1695717
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  1. Univ. Libre, Brussels (Belgium)
  2. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  3. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
  4. Swansea Univ. (United Kingdom)
  5. Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  6. Univ. of Grenoble (France)
  7. Univ. Libre, Brussels (Belgium); Univ. of Utrecht (Netherlands)
  8. Victoria Univ. of Wellington (New Zealand)
  9. Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan)
  10. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  11. Alfred Wegener Inst. for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany); Univ. of Bremen (Germany)
  12. Alfred Wegener Inst. for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)
  13. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  14. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  15. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
  16. Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)
  17. California Institute of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)
  18. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Univ. of Potsdam (Germany)
  19. Alfred Wegener Inst. for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany); Univ. of Bern (Switzerland)
  20. Univ. of Utrecht (Netherlands)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.
Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
Belgian Science Policy Office; German Research Foundation (DFG); KAKENHI; National Science Foundation (NSF); Royal Society of New Zealand; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR); USDOE Office of Science (SC). Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR)
Grant/Contract Number:
89233218CNA000001; AC02-05CH11231
OSTI ID:
1695717
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1828706
Report Number(s):
LA-UR--20-20271; ark:/13030/qt4zv1d5cx
Journal Information:
Journal of Glaciology, Journal Name: Journal of Glaciology Journal Issue: 260 Vol. 66; ISSN 0022-1430
Publisher:
International Glaciological SocietyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (3)

The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century journal February 2021
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet journal February 2021
ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model journal January 2021

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Antarctic glaciology
Earth Sciences
ice shelves
ice-sheet modelling